Gold & Silver
Silver broke long-term support at $18.50 per ounce, offering a target of $15.50/ounce*. First, expect retracement to respect the new resistance level. Gold is likely to follow Silver to a new four-year low.
* Target calculation: 18.5 – ( 21.5 – 18.5 ) = 15.5
Gold respected the new resistance level at $1240/ounce and is now testing $1200. Follow-through below $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1000*, while respect would suggest another rally to $1240. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, further strengthens the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000
Gold Bugs Index (representing un-hedged gold stocks) is also testing long-term support. Breach of support at 200 would strengthen the bear signal for Gold.
Interest Rates and the Dollar
Rising Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar both add downward pressure to Gold. Higher interest rates increase the carrying cost of gold, while the Dollar competes with Gold both as a safe haven and as an appreciating asset (against other currencies).
The Dollar Index broke through resistance at the 2013 high of 84.75. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum, above zero, signals a primary up-trend. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect is likely and would offer a long-term target of 89*. Reversal below 84.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89.00
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes respected resistance at 2.65 percent and is retracing to test support at 2.50. Follow-through above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.00, but 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to suggest a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 2.50 would indicate another test of primary support at 2.30.
* Target calculation: 2.30 – ( 2.60 – 2.30 ) = 2.00