The ASX 200 is at far greater risk of reverting to a primary down-trend. Retreat of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, after a bearish divergence, warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 5050 would strengthen the signal, while breach of 5000 would confirm. Respect of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would continue the up-trend.
Breach of support at 5000 would suggest a fall to the long-term trendline, around 4600. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero again suggests a primary down-trend.
The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but below 20 still reflects low market risk.
Also, none of our macro-economic/volatility indicators indicate elevated risk, but you can’t argue with the tape.