Dow warns of reversal but VIX refutes

Dow Jones Industrial Average tall shadow (or wick) on last week’s candle warns of short-term selling pressure — echoing the long-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below 14800 would confirm a primary down-trend. Breakout above 15660 is unlikely, but would signal a fresh advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

However, VIX below 15 continues to suggest a bull market.

VIX Index

I have more faith in the calculation of the S&P 500 index — which displays a milder bearish divergence. While reversal below 1630 would signal a reversal, it would not penetrate the long-term rising trendline; only breach of 1530 would be cause for serious alarm. Respect of support at 1630, on the other hand, would be bullish, suggesting an advance to 1850.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1850

3 Replies to “Dow warns of reversal but VIX refutes”

  1. Hi Colin. Love your articles. Regarding the VIX, what about the old saying “When its low, it’s time to go. When it’s high, it’s time to buy”. I am by no means an expert & I have no idea how the saying came about or if it works. It’s just something I remember.

  2. Candlestick charts appear so beautiful ! Really light our way in trading.Three bull candles
    in DJI averages,after a strong bear candle indicate correction,if not reversal,……byk

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