Japan opened sharply lower on Monday, with Dow Jones Japan Index testing its long-term rising trendline at 75. Failure of support at 69 would signal a primary down-trend.
The Nikkei 225 is similarly testing its rising trendline. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Failure of support at 12500 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely but would test 16000.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.
India’s Sensex found resistance at 20200, retreating toward its rising trendline. Penetration of the trendline would warn the trend is weakening, while failure of support at 18500 would signal a primary down-trend. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicate moderate buying pressure. Respect of support at 19000 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if resistance at 20200 is broken.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000
The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow flag above the new support level at 5000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a test of the May peak at 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.
* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850
The ASX 200 Volatility Index below 15 also indicates low market risk — a bullish sign.
