Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 13500, indicating the correction is over. Expect a re-test of the May high at 16000. Reversal below 13500, however, would mean another test of 12500. A trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy primary up-trend.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected support at 250, the long tail on both the $DJSH and Shanghai Composite indicating strong buying pressure. Expect a rally to test resistance at 275 (2150 on the Shanghai Composite), but the primary trend remains downward and resistance at 275 (2150) is likely to hold.
India’s Sensex rallied off its rising trendline, suggesting that the primary up-trend will continue. Follow-through above 19500 would indicate a test of resistance at 20000/20200. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a reversal and would only be refuted by a breakout above 20200 (or a rise above the May peak on TMF).
The ASX 200 respected its descending trendline at 4800 and is headed for another test of support at 4650. A peak below zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy down-trend. Breach of 4650 would test the key long-term support level of 4400, while respect would mean another test of 4900. In the longer term, respect of 4400 would be bullish, but failure of support would be a strong bear signal.
The ASX Small Ordinaries, by contrast, exhibits a stronger bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating buying support. Breakout above 1960 would indicate the latest primary decline is over, while reversal below 1880 would offer a target of 1800. Small Caps have been badly mauled over the last two years and at some point will present an opportunity to value investors. Unfortunately that end is not yet in sight.
fair analysis….
ASX 200 is “headed for ” is a prediction ; as is “expect” ; definitely not probability statements of the form true to your strategy. Repeat that theoretical strategy utterances at odds with implementation, as I have tried to assist in last week’s post. Please don’t attempt to prevail with unconvincing responses – just stop using clearly predictive nuances in your dairies. Probability statements are of the style ‘there is a better than average chance of ” ; “if….. then”..; etc.
Graham, Please drop this. We are not going to agree. So let’s agree to differ.
Online dictionary definitions are:
Predict = Say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something.
Expect = Regard (something) as likely to happen.
If I want to make a prediction I will state so clearly: “This is/is not going to happen….”