In his 2013 outlook, titled In Authorities We (have to) Trust, Deutsche Bank credit strategist Jim Reid warns that Europe is headed for tough times in 2013.
Matthew Boesler at BusinessInsider writes:
Reid highlights three major issues.
To start, European stocks – and stocks in markets around the world, for that matter – are considerably overvalued based on historical correlations to PMI data….
The second problem is austerity. Most accept that austerity measures weigh on economic growth in the short term, yet euro-area governments are moving forward with plans attempting to bring fiscal budgets back into balance anyway.
…. the third problem: namely, that governments have consistently set economic forecasts too high and then failed to meet their own targets.
Read more here Reid: Eurozone’s 2013 Nightmare Scenario | Business Insider.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.