By Barry Ritholtz
The GDP data this morning was a deep sigh of relief for those people who fear a recession may be coming. I don’t have that sense of relief. Perhaps its my own bias, but the details of the GDP report reveal not an organic growth period in a healthy recovering economy, but rather a tepid post-credit crisis expansion highly dependent on government largesse and Federal Reserve accommodation…..
via A Closer Look GDP Data | The Big Picture.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
thanks so much for your hard work. I’m wondering what happens to the value of the AUD if there is a great contraction? Same as USD or something different? Any ideas?
thanks for your time & attention, bill arcright
Contraction generates uncertainty. Uncertainty leads investors to avoid risk. Investors withdraw to safety of the US dollar and gold. Relative pricing of these two items rises ….. which would mean the AUDUSD would fall.