By William R. Emmons:
The recession itself could be described as a period in which consumer spending contracted sharply, while other sources of private demand were unable to offset the shortfall. The subsequent recovery, such as it is, largely has been the result of massive government interventions in the form of financial rescues, unprecedented monetary stimulus and record-breaking government budget deficits. We’re left with extremely low short-term and long-term interest rates, as well as historically large budget deficits—all of which must reverse at some point.
…..To assure strong, sustainable growth in the long term, the U.S. economy needs to include a larger role for business investment and exports than has been the case in recent decades.
via Don’t Expect Consumer Spending To Be the Engine of Economic Growth It Once Was.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.