The monthly chart of the S&P 500 shows 63-day Twiggs Momentum has been falling for about two years but is now threatening to form a trough above zero which would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 1420 would confirm, offering a target of the 2007 high at 1550*. Respect of resistance, however, would mean more of the same gloomy outlook — our steady diet over the past few months.
* Target calculation: 1400 + ( 1400 – 1250 ) = 1550
Respect of 2400 on the Nasdaq 100 monthly chart is also a bullish sign. Breakout above 2800 would offer a target of 3200*.
* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.