10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 1.55 percent. Falling yields suggest that the current stock market rally is likely to fail: money is flowing into bonds — not stocks. Failure of support would strengthen the warning. Recovery above 1.70 percent is less likely but would bolster the stock market rally.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Range bound. Will stay there for a very long time, if there is no q.e. offered by the U.S.Government.
Hi Colin, A longer term view (3-4 yrs) of global markets shows a clear H&S pattern. Also with copper. World markets-ex US have peaked in April 2011. Only the S&P and DOW are still in an uptrend. But how long can these two go when the rest of the world is flat to down?
DJ Global Index could still go either way (support at 220 and resistance at 260) but commodities are diverging — pointing to a global economic down-turn.