The S&P 500 retracement breached support at 1330, indicating a false breakout. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of a bull trap, while breach of support at 1270 would confirm another decline — with a target of 1160*.
* Target calculation: 1260 – ( 1360 – 1260 ) = 1160
Nasdaq 100 monthly chart shows an intact up-trend despite slowing momentum. Respect of support at 2400 (and the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum) would indicate another primary advance. Penetration of the rising trendline, however, would warn that a top is forming.
* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200
Canada’s TSX 60 shows similar weakness, on the daily chart, to the S&P 500. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicates support at 640. Respect would suggest that a bottom is forming — strengthened if the index recovers above the declining trendline. Breach of support, on the other hand, would signal a decline to 600*.
* Target calculation: 640 – ( 680 – 640 ) = 600
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
I think you meant to say bull trap ?
I thought the same thing! Thought I was going mad…
Quite correct. It should have read bull trap. Apologies for the confusion.
This week SPX breached support and now appears to have closed at or just above support.
Interesting days ahead…..