Mark Hulbert: Investors appear to be betting that the Fed and European central banks now have no choice but to stimulate their economies to a much greater extent than previously planned. Since much of that additional liquidity would find its way into equities, the stock market responded favorably.
To put it crudely: The news is so bad it’s good.
via Stock market is saying ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ – Mark Hulbert – MarketWatch.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Since when is spreading computer-generated “money” around good for a country?
Give a drunk another drink and he may feel good but it won’t make him healthier!
Dangerous chemotherapy drugs should only be administered to patients whose survival is threatened. Likewise inflation should only be administered when the economy is on the ‘critical’ list. For the past 3 decades the Fed has been handing out ‘harmful drugs’ like they were aspirin. Now we have to wean the economy off its addiction. If we abruptly cut off the supply, we may cure the addiction but kill the patient. In 1937 Roosevelt tried to balance the budget after several years of massive deficits. Manufacturing output (according to Wiki) fell 37%. That is what can happen if you try to go cold turkey.
Mark, we are probably already in a recession. To late to stop it now. The market won’t like what it will do to the economy over the coming months imo
To many variables to predict an outcome of anything……………follow the trend and the trend may be wrong in the end……….
The problem comes when there is no clear trend. Then we follow the Fed….