Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, with a break of the neckline at $88, and is now consolidating between $85 and $90. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $85 would confirm, suggesting that economic activity is slowing.
* Target calculation: 85 – ( 95 – 85 ) = 75
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Colin:
Thanks for the very nice engulfing note on SPX.
In support of your analytical bias downward, the 13RSI failed its second attempt to break 50%, and price failed its second attempt to break the 144ema.
Your momentum indicator is great, and consistent, though I prefer a shorter time frame. Is it possible to overlay momentum on price ?
“Your momentum indicator is great, and consistent, though I prefer a shorter time frame. Is it possible to overlay momentum on price?”
I prefer 63 days for the primary cycle, 21 days for the secondary.
You can’t overlay Momentum on the price chart because it oscillates rather than rises or falls. Drawing trendlines or channels on the price chart is another measure of Momentum however.
Colin
You seem to be ignoring a divergence in the money flow vs the price. It’s an extremely positive divergence.
John B
I would like to see TMF recover above zero (the previous high) before I attach any weight to this.