Canada’s TSX 60 index broke through primary support at 650, confirming the primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Expect a decline to 580*. Recovery above 650 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
The weekly trend of the S&P 500 made two strong corrections since 2009 and these two corrections did not respect the zero line of the MACD. I am afraid that this whole rally is a bearish rally!!.
I agree on the bearish call, without going in to the details.
There is a rally under way that may come as a surprise since Colin’s trading diary.
I note that price bounced off of 50% retracement of the rally since GFC. The oversold relief rally this week is destined to further selling imo.
Looks like we all agree on the long term direction.
ps
I see the risistance to this rally at about 661, which is half way between the 38% retracement and the 50% retracement. Using an alternate method of price control changing hands, the 661 price resistance is also confirmed imo. If 661 resistance fails then 679 will be the next resistance target.