Crude oil is rising because of tensions over Iran, but commodities lag far behind, hurt by a stronger dollar and weak global demand. Brent crude is testing resistance at $125/$126 per barrel on the Weekly chart. Narrow consolidation is a bullish sign. Breakout would signal an advance to $150*.
* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150
The broader CRB Commodities Index, which includes 33 percent petroleum products, is testing medium-term support at 310. Failure would signal a test of primary support at 295, while respect would indicate a primary up-trend with an initial target of 355*.
* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 295 ) = 355
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.