Gold and Silver threaten fall

Silver closed at $14.965/ounce, threatening a break below medium-term support at $15/ounce. Follow-through would warn of a test of primary support at $14. Declining Trend Index peaks flag selling pressure.

Spot Silver in USD

Spot Gold is testing the base of its descending triangle, at $1280/ounce, and is likely to follow Silver lower. The bearish triangle and declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Breach of $1280 would offer a target of primary support at $1180.

Spot Gold in USD

Gold descending triangle

The Dollar continues to test resistance at 97.50, threatening a breakout. A strengthening Dollar weakens demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold has formed a descending triangle, testing medium-term support at $1280/ounce. The bearish formation and declining Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of $1280 would offer a target of primary support at $1180.

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is likewise testing medium-term support at $15/ounce, warning of a decline to $14.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold weakens as Dollar strengthens

The Dollar is again testing resistance at 97.50, threatening a breakout.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold is testing medium-term support at $1280/ounce. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Breach of $1280 would offer a target of primary support at $1180.

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is likewise testing medium-term support at $15/ounce, warning of a decline to $14.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold: Short candles signal weakness

The Dollar is expected to continue ranging between 95 and 97.50 over the next few months.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold bounced off intermediate support at $1280/ounce but short candles over the past three weeks warn of selling pressure. Breach of $1280 would warn of another test of primary support at $1180.

Spot Gold in USD

Dollar stirs, Gold weakens

The Dollar is testing resistance at 97.50 after poor progress in US-China trade talks. Breakout would signal an advance to 100 which would be bearish for gold.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold found short-term support at $1300/ounce. Expect a test of support at $1250 but a fresh Dollar advance would threaten primary support at $1180.

Spot Gold in USD

Gold retreats

Spot Gold retreated from resistance at $1350/ounce. Penetration of the rising trendline warns of another correction. The immediate target is support at $1250.

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is also retreating. Breach of $15/ounce would strengthen the bear signal.

Spot Silver in USD

Crude oil has rallied since the start of the year but the primary trend is down and lower peaks on the trend index warn of further selling pressure. Breach of medium-term support at $52 would signal another test of primary support at $42 which would be bullish for the Dollar.

Crude Oil

The Dollar is gradually strengthening. Breakout of the Dollar Index above its current range of 95.50 to 97.50 would be bearish for gold.

Dollar Index

The Aussie Dollar held steady, while the All Ordinaries Gold Index retreated from its recent high above 6000. Expect a test of new support at 5400.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Gold rallies but so does the Dollar

A long-term (monthly) chart shows Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) has broken below its trend channel and is testing support at $45/barrel.

Crude Oil

Weak crude tends to coincide with a strong Dollar. Breakout of the Dollar index above 97 is likely. Rising Trend index troughs indicate buying pressure.

Dollar Index

Gold is headed for another test of resistance at $1350/ounce but a strong Dollar is likely to undermine a primary advance.

Spot Gold in USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index broke resistance at 5400/5500, signaling a primary advance with a target of 7000. That will depend on further weakness in the Aussie Dollar and/or a stronger gold price.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Conclusion: We are witnessing a rally in Gold due to global uncertainty but the LT outlook, with declining crude and a stronger Dollar, is still bearish.

Gold and the Dollar direction

Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) respected support at $45/barrel, with turmoil in Venezuela raising concerns over supply. Breakout above $55 would signal another rally but declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Expect another test of $45. Breach of support would signal a decline to test the 2016 low at $26/barrel.

Crude Oil

The Dollar index is weakening. If China continues to support the Yuan, we may see a correction to test support at 92. A lot will depend on trade talks in the next two weeks but I expect continued Dollar strength and Yuan weakness.

Dollar Index

The PBOC increased support for the Yuan over the last month, leading up to the US-China trade talks, causing the Dollar to weaken.

Chinese Yuan/USD

Gold has ranged below resistance at $1350/ounce for the past five years. Expect another test of $1350 if the Dollar weakens. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend but LT Dollar strength is likely ….and a correction to test support at $1200.

Spot Gold in USD

A weakening Australian Dollar has helped Aussie gold stocks. The All Ordinaries Gold Index broke resistance at 5400, signaling a primary advance with a target of 7000. But that depends on further weakness in the Aussie Dollar (< 70 US cents?) and/or a stronger gold price (> $1350?)

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Conclusion: We are witnessing a rally in Gold due to global uncertainty but the LT outlook, with declining crude and a stronger Dollar, is bearish.

Gold: Bull or bear?

Gold is testing resistance at $1300/ounce and is likely to follow-through to the long-term (LT) ceiling at $1350. Trend Index  on the LT  monthly chart displays a large triangular consolidation, indicating uncertainty. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but this is unlikely, for three reasons. First, this is a bear market. A decline is more likely for that reason alone. Target for a decline is the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Second, a strengthening Dollar is likely to weaken Gold. I have inverted the LT chart of the Dollar Index (and Trend Index) below so that it is easier to relate to gold. As the Dollar strengthened, denoted by a LT fall on the inverted chart, Gold has weakened. The Dollar index shows a broadening consolidation since 2015, with bull and bear traps, again indicating uncertainty. At present, the Dollar is testing resistance at 97 but is likely to follow through to test LT resistance at 100. Rising Trend Index troughs above zero (remember the scale is inverted) signal buying pressure.

Dollar Index inverted

Third, falling Crude Oil prices are bearish for Gold. The LT chart below compares spot crude  to  spot gold, both adjusted for inflation to bring earlier peaks into proper perspective. The LT relationship is clear: gold and crude tend to rise and fall together. Crude prices have recently tumbled, exerting downward pressure on Gold.

Gold and Crude Oil, adjusted by CPI

Conclusion: We are witnessing a rally in Gold because of global uncertainty but the LT outlook is bearish.

Gold rallies despite strong Dollar

Falling crude prices show a dead cat bounce at $50/barrel, warning of further selling pressure. OPEC production cuts have not helped much as the market anticipates slowing demand from China.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

The Dollar Index is strengthening, with Trend Index troughs above zero signaling buying pressure. Follow-through above 97.50 would signal an advance to 100 in the medium-term (next quarter).

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to test resistance at $1250/ounce but this is still a bear rally and another test of support at $1180 is likely. Breach would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index ran into strong resistance at 5100. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Breach of 4900 would warn of another test of 4550.

Gold in Australian Dollars