By CHAD BRAY
NYSE Euronext NYX +2.23% agreed to pay a $5 million penalty to settle allegations by the Securities and Exchange Commission that technology issues at the New York Stock Exchange gave some customers an “improper head start” on trading information. The case marks the first time the SEC has ever brought a case that resulted in a monetary penalty against an exchange.
See if you can spot Kim Jong-il in the video 😉
The $15 trillion U.S. national debt — how big is it really? And what can we do about the enormous federal budget deficit?
Expect stocks and commodities to rally – especially gold.
The S&P 500 followed through above 1440, confirming the primary advance to 1560*.
* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560
Spot gold broke through short-term resistance at 175, headed for a test of $1800/ounce*.
* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800
By KRISTINA PETERSON, JON HILSENRATH and MICHAEL S. DERBY:
After months of careful signaling, the Fed’s policy-making committee said it would buy $40 billion each month of agency mortgage-backed securities on an open-ended basis and said it could extend those purchases and buy additional assets if the job market doesn’t improve.
“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement issued at the end of its two-day meeting.
via Fed to Buy More Bonds in Bid to Spur Economy – WSJ.com.
I guess I was wrong about the Fed holding off until after the election.
By PATRICK CHOVANEC
On Aug. 3, the owner of Chengxing Solar Company leapt from the sixth floor of his office building in Jinhua, China. Li Fei killed himself after his company was unable to repay a $3 million bank loan it had guaranteed for another Chinese solar company that defaulted. One local financial newspaper called Li’s suicide “a sign of the imminent collapse facing the Chinese photovoltaic industry” due to overcapacity and mounting debts.
President Barack Obama has held up China’s investments in green energy and high-speed rail as examples of the kind of state-led industrial policy that America should be emulating. The real lesson is precisely the opposite. State subsidies have spawned dozens of Chinese Solyndras that are now on the verge of collapse.
By YUVAL ROSENBERG, The Fiscal Times:
Median household incomes adjusted for inflation fell 1.5 percent to $50,054. That’s 8.1 percent lower than it had been in 2007, the year before the recession, and almost 9 percent lower than the peak income level reached in 1999. The last time median household income was lower was 1995 – meaning it’s been a lost decade and a half for Americans looking to get ahead.
The gross domestic product has gone from $7.4 trillion to $15.1 trillion in current-dollar terms over that time, suggesting that families have fallen behind even as the economy has expanded.
The Dollar Index broke primary support at 81.00 and the rising trendline on the weekly chart, signaling reversal to a primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 81.00/82.00. Respect is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78
Spot Gold continues its advance toward $1800 per ounce*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800
The 4-hour chart shows gold advancing in even steps of $30: from $1590 to $1630, $1660, $1690, and $1720. Each sharp jump is followed by several days consolidation, before another breakout. Occasional false starts — above $1700 — and reversals — below $1650 — keep traders on their toes, but this is a strong trend and should yield good results. False breaks at $1600, $1650 and $1700 remind us to be vigilant at $1750.
The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, broke out of its double-bottom to signal a primary advance to 530*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal.
* Target calculation: 460 + ( 460 – 390 ) = 530
The CRB Commodities Index is also rising in response to the weaker dollar. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2012 high at 325.
Brent Crude continues to consolidate between $112 and $116 per barrel. Upward breakout would test $126. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero strengthens the bull signal. Reversal below $112 is unlikely, but would signal another test of support at $100.
David Uren from The Australian, as quoted by Mark the Graph:
Last week’s national accounts show company tax payments have fallen from an all-time peak of 6.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 as Peter Costello delivered his last budget, to just 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. This is the lowest share since September 1996, when Costello delivered his first budget. It is less than during the global financial crisis and erodes all the gains in corporate taxation tapped by both governments to finance personal tax cuts, increased family benefits, higher pensions, greater education spending and much more during the past 16 years. No wonder the budget is in deficit.
View some great charts from the National Accounts at Mark the Graph: Tax chartacular.
The video below is an in-depth full hour-long segment and well worth watching. Notice that Dalio sees the credit accelerator as a key component adding to aggregate demand and the key component that creates instability in that demand. Unlike traditional econometric models that do not use the debt and credit stock as a consideration for a flow variable like spending, yet again we see that someone who anticipated the crisis does.
