Tag: $VIX

S&P 500 follow-through above short-term resistance at 1880 strengthens the case for an advance to 1950. Breakout above 1900 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would signal long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1850 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1750.

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 14 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

Nasdaq 100 breakout above 3600 would suggest a fresh advance. Follow-through above 3750 would confirm, offering a target of 4000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would also be a bullish sign, while respect of resistance at 3600 would be bearish.

* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000

The primary trend is upward and none of our market filters indicate elevated risk.

Summary:

• Medium-term selling pressure is strong, warning of a secondary correction
• But the primary trend is up and VIX remains low
• Long-term prospects remain bullish

The S&P 500 continues to encounter resistance at 1880 and bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breakout above 1900 would signal a primary advance, but a secondary correction is more likely. The primary trend, however, remains upward.

VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

The Nasdaq 100 displays stronger selling pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of resistance at 3600/3650 would be cause for concern, breach of support at 3400 completing a head and shoulders reversal with a target of 3100* at the primary trendline. Recovery above 3750 is unlikely at present, but would offer a target of 4000.

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 3100

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1880 and follow-through above 1900 would signal another primary advance. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money, however, continues to warn of selling pressure and another secondary correction remains likely. But the primary trend is up.

VIX below 14 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.

The Nasdaq 100 is testing resistance at 3600/3650. Breakout would suggest another advance, while respect would be cause for concern. Reversal below 3400 would complete a head and shoulders reversal with a target of 3100* at the primary trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure.

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 3100

I would suggest that even a Nasdaq fall to 3100 would not disrupt the bull market. Penetration of the primary trendline at 3100, however, would be cause for concern.

The S&P 500 recovered above 1850, suggesting an advance to 1950. Breakout above 1900 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above its descending trendline indicates that selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 1840 is less likely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1750.

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to 14, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

The Nasdaq 100 found strong support at 3400 on the weekly chart. Recovery above 3600 would suggest an advance. Breakout above 3700 would confirm, offering a target of 4000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would be a bullish sign. Respect of resistance at 3600 would be bearish.

* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000

The primary trend continues upward and none of our market filters indicate elevated risk.

Narrow consolidation on the S&P 500 weekly chart and completion of a shallow correction on the Nasdaq 100 would suggest a strong up-trend.

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1875/1880, signaling an advance to 1950*. Layering above 1850 throughout March reflected strong selling, with bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warning of medium-term selling pressure, but upward breakout indicates that buyers have prevailed. Reversal below 1875 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap — as would a peak below the descending trendline on Twiggs Money Flow.

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

The Nasdaq 100 found support at 3550 and the (secondary) ascending trendline. Recovery above 3700 would confirm another advance, but continued bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would warn of persistent selling pressure.

* Target calculation: 3750 + ( 3750 – 3550 ) = 3950