Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index hesitated in its rally to resistance at 2500 on the weekly chart, but the trend remains upward. Breakout above 2500 would signal a primary advance to 2900* — and end of the bear market. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is also rising, but recovery above zero appears some way off.
* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 – 2100 ) = 2900
Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 12300. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 13400 and an end to the bear market. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum is encouraging but will only be significant if retracement respects the zero line.
* Target calculation: 12300 + ( 12300 – 11200 ) = 13400
The Nasdaq 100, however, displays a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of selling pressure. Reversal below 2040 would confirm a primary down-trend. Breakout above 2400 is less likely, but would suggest an advance to 2800*.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 2800
The euro is likely to re-test primary support at $1.32 against the greenback. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of continuation of the primary down-trend. Breach of support would indicate a primary decline to $1.22*.
* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22
Sterling rallied off primary support at $1.53/$1.54 against the greenback but 63-day Twiggs Momentum again warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.46*.
* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46
Canada’s Loonie is headed for another test of resistance at $1.01 against the greenback. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Respect of resistance is likely, and would signal another test of primary support at $0.95. Declining commodity prices also favor a down-trend.
* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 0.89
The Aussie Dollar appears stronger than the Loonie, which is unusual. Both are affected by commodity prices, but the Aussie tends to be more volatile than its Canadian counterpart. Obviously, higher interest rates in the Southern hemisphere are an attraction. Again, 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. And reversal below parity would warn of another test of primary support at $0.95.
* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.07 – 0.95 ) = 0.83
The greenback has strengthened sharply against the South African Rand and Brazilian Real. Both volatile, resource-rich currencies are likely to re-test their recent highs: the rand at R8.50 and the real at 1.90 against the dollar.
The greenback shows strong bullish divergence against Japan’s yen on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a reversal. Breach of the long-term descending trendline would strengthen the signal. Breakout above ¥80 would confirm.
Dow Jones Japan Index is headed for a test of the descending trendline but 63-day Twiggs Momentum remains deep below zero, indicating a strong primary down-trend.
Dow Jones India 30 Titans index found support above 150 and is headed for another test of resistance around 170. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow favors a primary trend reversal. Breakout above 172 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 170 + ( 170 – 150 ) = 190
Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected resistance at 320 and is now testing support at 285. Failure would offer a target of 260*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 290 – ( 320 – 290 ) = 260
DJ Hong Kong index is testing medium-term support at 360. Failure would mean a re-test of the primary level at 320; respect is less likely but would indicate another test of 410. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.
We are not out of the woods yet, but the S&P 500 weekly chart is starting to diverge from its mid-2008 pattern. Headed for a test of the descending trendline and resistance at 1300, an index breakout would signal a primary advance to 1450* and the end of the bear market. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would support this.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, displays short-term resistance between 12000 and 12300 on the daily chart. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of rising selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 12300 + ( 12300 – 11200 ) = 13400
Nasdaq 100 Index is headed for resistance at 2400. Upward breakout would offer a target of 2750*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure, but breakout above the descending trendline would negate this.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 2750
The two overriding features on the USD/Yen chart are the strong primary down-trend — as indicated by the descending trendline — and a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warning of a reversal. Recovery above resistance at ¥80 would confirm the reversal.
The euro respected primary support at $1.32. Recovery above $1.36 would signal another attempt at $1.42. But the primary trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, is downward and breakout below $1.32 would signal a decline to $1.22*.
* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22
The Pound also rallied but again 63-day Twiggs Momentum is weak. Follow-through above $1.57 would suggest another attempt at $1.615. But the primary trend remains downward and failure of primary support at $1.53 is more likely, offering a target of $1.45*.
* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.61 – 1.53 ) = 1.45
Canada’s Loonie also responded to rising commodity prices with a rally to test resistance at $1.01. Breakout remains unlikely, but would offer a long-term target of $1.07. The probability would increase if 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovers above zero.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07
Brent Crude again found support at $105/barrel. Breakout above the trend channel and resistance at $115 would signal the end of the bear-trend and another test of $125. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would likewise suggest a primary advance. Failure would re-test primary support at $99.
* Target calculation: 115 + ( 115 – 105 ) = 125
