TSX Composite Index Archives - Page 2 of 3

June 25, 2013

S&P500 holds strong while Canada and Europe weaken

10-Year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.50% as bond-holders offload their positions. Expect weak retracement to test the new support level at 2.00%, but recovery above 2.50% is likely and would signal a long-term advance to test resistance at 4.00%. Breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover, enabling the Fed to curtail further quantitative easing.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 broke support at 1600 and is undergoing a correction to test the long-term rising trendline at 1500. Twiggs Money Flow reflects moderate selling and the primary up-trend looks secure.

S&P 500 Index
My concern is: can the US withstand negative sentiment from global markets? The rising VIX is not yet cause for alarm, with the market shrugging off the last foray above 20, but a spike above 25 would warn of elevated risk.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite broke support at 11900/12000 to signal a primary down-trend. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2012 low at 11250.

TSX Composite Index

The FTSE 100 is testing the rising trendline and support at 6000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Failure of support at 6000 would strengthen the signal.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of the long-term trendline and primary support at 7400/7500. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7400 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

DAX

June 16, 2013

Canada: TSX threatens down-trend

Canada’s TSX Composite is testing primary support at 11900 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal reversal to a primary down-trend, confirming the warning from a bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of support is unlikely, but would indicate another attempt at 13000.

TSX Composite Index

June 11, 2013

S&P500 recovers as bond yields rise, but TSX weakens

10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.00%, confirming the primary up-trend. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend, but a rise to there would result in an almost 50% loss for bondholders. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover and the Fed will curtail further quantitative easing.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 respected support at 1600 and is headed for a test of the upper channel around 1700. Reversal below support at 1600 is now unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index
The VIX is rising, but remains in the green zone, below 20.

S&P 500 Index

The TSX Composite reversed below support at 12500, indicating weakness. Follow-through below last week’s low would suggest a test of primary support at 11900/12000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

May 13, 2013

Canada: TSX Composite recovery

The TSX Composite followed through above 12500, indicating another test of resistance at 12800/13000. Expect retracement to test the new medium-term support level at 12500, but respect is likely. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 13000 still appears some way off, but would offer a target of the 2011 high at 14300.
TSX Composite Index

April 29, 2013

Canada: TSX Composite bearish

The TSX Composite correction found support at 12000. Expect a rally to test resistance at 12500, but penetration of the rising trendline indicates weakness and breach of support at 12000 would be a strong bear signal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warned of a correction; a fall below zero would suggest a (primary trend) reversal.
TSX Composite Index

March 12, 2013

Canada: TSX good to go

Shallow retracement of the TSX Composite below resistance is a bullish sign. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout above 12900 would confirm a primary advance. Immediate target would be 13500*, with a long-term target of the 2011 high at 14300.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12500 ) = 13500

March 4, 2013

Canada: TSX buying pressure

Long tails on the TSX Composite weekly chart indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would signal a fresh advance, while follow-through above 12900 would confirm. Reversal below 12600 is unlikely but would warn of a correction. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure and a primary advance. The long-term target would be 15000*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000

February 25, 2013

Canada: TSX edges lower

The TSX Composite found support at 12600/12650 on the daily chart. Breakout above 12800 would signal a fresh advance, while reversal below 12600 would warn of a correction. Expect support at 12500 and a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) suggest that a base is forming. The long-term target for a breakout above 13000 would be 15000*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000

February 17, 2013

Canada: TSX retreats

The TSX Composite retreated from resistance at 12800. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breakout below 12650 would confirm a correction. Expect support at 12500.

TSX Composite Index
Rising troughs on long-term (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggest that a base is forming. Breakout above 13000 would indicate a primary advance, offering a target of 15000*.

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000

February 11, 2013

Canada: TSX buying pressure

The TSX Composite continues to test resistance at 12800. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would signal an advance to the 2011 high at 14300*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 11300 ) = 14300