Canada: TSX 60 tests 2011 high

Canada’s TSX 60 encountered strong selling at the 2011 high of 820. Follow-through below 814 would test medium-term support at 800. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 770. Breakout above 820 is less likely, but would signal an advance to 840*.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 805 + ( 805 – 770 ) = 840

Canada: TSX 60 buying pressure

Canada’s TSX 60 is testing the January high at 806. Higher troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggest strong buying pressure. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 770. Expect long-term resistance at the 2011 high of 820*.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 740 ) = 820

New lows on the TSX 60 VIX flag a strong bull market.

TSX 60 VIX

Canada: Bull market

Canada’s TSX 60 is heading for a test of resistance at the 2011 high of 820* after successfully testing its new support level at 780. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests strong buying pressure. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 740 ) = 820

Declining TSX 60 VIX, below 20, flags a bull market.

TSX 60 VIX

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 is retracing to test its new support level at 780. Respect would confirm an advance to 820*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests nothing more than secondary (medium-term) weakness unless there is a crossover below zero. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 750.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 740 ) = 820

TSX 60 VIX is rising but remains bullish.

TSX 60 VIX

Canada: TSX 60 finds support

Canada’s TSX 60 found support at 750. Recovery above 780 would signal an advance to 810*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 675/680.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 750 ) = 810

Low TSX 60 VIX readings suggest a bull market.

TSX 60 VIX

TSX advance

Canada’s TSX 60 respected support at 772/775, indicating an advance to 800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects selling pressure during the recent consolidation. A trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a correction — as would breach of short-term support at 772.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX at historic lows signals a bullish outlook for stocks.

TSX 60 VIX

TSX bullish consolidation

Canada’s TSX 60 is consolidating in a narrow range at its medium-term target of 770 after a strong spurt. This is a bullish sign and follow-through above 775 would signal a further advance to 800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX is above 15 but still in the low risk range.

TSX 60 VIX

Nasdaq accelerates while Dow and S&P500 hesitate

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend — as indicated by successively steeper trendlines and a rising trendline on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Accelerating trends, or blow-offs, are well-known for rapid gains but inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3400

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The S&P 500 is edging higher on the weekly chart, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of rising selling pressure. Reversal below the secondary trendline at 1700 would indicate a correction to the primary trendline and primary support at 1630.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1730 + ( 1730 – 1650 ) = 1810

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 15700. Breakout would offer a target of 16600*. Respect of the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would confirm the earlier bearish divergence and warn of a correction to primary support at 14800. Breach of 14800 remains unlikely, but would signal a reversal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

Canada’s TSX 60 is retracing after a strong spurt. Duration of retracements reflect trend strength. Another trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would suggest strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX below 15 also reflects low market risk.

TSX 60 VIX

US & Canada: Rising buying pressure

The S&P 500 short retracement at 1750 is a bullish sign, confirming the advance to 1800*. Rising 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1730 is most unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1650.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1730 + ( 1730 – 1650 ) = 1810

VIX below 15 flags low market risk.

VIX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of resistance at 15700; breakout would offer a target of 16600*. Recovery above the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would negate the earlier bearish divergence. Breach of 14800 is unlikely, but would warn of a reversal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The Nasdaq 100, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs well above zero, indicates strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

Canada’s TSX 60 is advancing toward its target of 800*, the trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is now most unlikely.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

Canada TSX 60

The TSX 60 is testing the band of resistance from 720 to 730 and the descending trendline. Upward breakout would indicate that the primary down-trend is weakening, while respect would warn of another test of primary support. The sharp rise on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, but there is no sign yet of a reversal.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580