Tag: target

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Japan & South Korea

Bullish divergence on Japan’s Nikkei 225 index (13-week Twiggs Money Flow) warns of a bear market rally. Breakout above the upper channel of the broadening wedge pattern would confirm. The primary trend, however, remains downward; breakout below the lower channel at 8400 would warn of a down-swing to 7800*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8400 – ( 9000 – 8400 ) = 7800

The Seoul Composite is weaker on Wednesday after a sharp rally earlier in the week. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow continues to threaten a break below zero. Breakout below the lower border of the broadening wedge formation would signal another primary decline.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1650 – ( 1900 – 1650 ) = 1400

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US rally encounters resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average tall shadow (or wick) on the latest candlestick [R] indicates rising selling pressure. With excitement about a European bailout deal fading, expect a test of support at 10600. Failure would indicate another down-swing, with a target of 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

S&P 500 Index shows continued consolidation between 1120 and 1220 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Failure of support at 1120 would test the 2010 low at 1020*/1000.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1120 – ( 1220 – 1120 ) = 1020

NASDAQ 100 Index shows an evening star reversal warning, completed if price reverses below 2200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reminds that we are in a primary down-trend. Breach of the lower trend channel would warn of another down-swing, with a target of 1750*.

NASDAQ 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2350 – 2050 ) = 1750

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The Dow tests key support at 10600

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing support at 10600; failure would add final confirmation of  the bear market signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum (holding below zero).

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

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Aussie Dollar breaks parity as commodities fall

The CRB Commodities Index gapped down to its lower trend channel in response to turmoil in Europe and the resulting stronger dollar.

CRB Commodities Index

The Aussie followed its Canadian counterpart below parity, confirming a primary down-trend with an initial target of $0.94*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94

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Europe falls heavily at open

Dow Jones Europe Index collapsed at the open of European markets, breakout below 225 signaling another down-swing with a target of 185*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declining below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 225 – ( 265 – 225 ) = 185

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Race to the bottom

The euro is outstripping the dollar in their race to the bottom. Having respected resistance at $1.40, breakout below $1.35 would signal a test of the next major support level at $1.30*. The 63-day Momentum peak below zero confirms a strong down-trend.

Euro EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

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Dollar surges as Fed nixes QE3

The US Dollar Index surged after the latest FOMC statement avoided any mention of additional purchases of Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Though they did leave the door ajar with their concluding paragraph:

………The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

The index respected the new support level at 76.00, confirming a primary advance to 79* — the start of a primary up-trend. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, further strengthening the primary trend signal; a large trough that respects the zero line would provide final confirmation.

US Dollar Index $DXY

* Target calculation: 76 + ( 76 – 73 ) = 79

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Weak Asian markets warn of continued selling pressure

Dow Jones Japan Index is testing long-term support at 50.00. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty; reversal below zero would warn of rising selling pressure. Breakout below 4800 would offer a target of 35.00*.

Dow Jones Japan Index

* Target calculation: 50 – ( 65 – 50 ) = 35

The Nikkei 225 Index is headed for a test of 7000* after breaking support at 9000 on the weekly chart.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 11000 – 9000 ) = 7000

Dow Jones South Korea Index is consolidating between 360 and 410 on the daily chart. 21-Day Twiggs  Money Flow below zero warns of strong medium-term selling pressure. Downward breakout would offer a target of 290*.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 360 – ( 430 – 360 ) = 290

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Gold finds support

A false break below $1800/ounce indicates buying support at the rising trendline. Breakout above $1900 would complete an ascending triangle with a target of $2100*. Reversal below Friday’s low would warn that the pattern has failed and correction to the long-term trendline (around $1500) is likely.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 2100

The long-term chart below gives a clearer picture of the current bull-trend. Spot prices spiked up 20% in a matter of days after the collapse of Lehman (LEH), but declined back to $700/ounce within a few weeks. The up-trend only started in November 2008, when the Fed announced that it would purchase mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys in an attempt to lower long-term interest rates (QE).  The trend accelerated in 2011, several months after commencement of QE2. While collapse of Lehman was the underlying cause, the bull-trend is a reaction to the Fed response of quantitative easing. Further purchases of Treasurys or MBS would lift demand for gold. Hopefully Wednesday’s FOMC announcement will provide more clarity as to the Fed’s intentions.

Spot Gold 4 Year View

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Dow runs out of buyers

Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to reach resistance at 11900/12000. Low volumes indicate a lack of interest from buyers rather than large numbers of sellers. Expect a test of support at 10600 to 10800. A strong surge in volume would indicate buying support, but failure is more likely and would offer a target of 9600*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 10800 – ( 12000 – 10800 ) = 9600

The S&P 500 Index is similarly headed for a test of support at 1100/1120. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow peaking below the zero line [bear] warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of 1000*.

S&P500 Index

* Target calculation: 1120 – ( 1260 – 1120 ) = 980

The Nasdaq 100 Index fared better over the last few weeks, but a failed breakout above 2200 warns of another test of 2000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero would further strengthen the bear signal.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2200 – 2000 ) = 1800

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