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October 18, 2011

South Africa & Brazil

The JSE Overall Index is testing both resistance and the descending trendline at 31500. Breakout would test the 2008/2011 high of 33000, but respect would warn of a test of 30000. Reversal below 30000 would signal a primary decline to 26000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support but long-term selling pressure.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 28500 – ( 31500 – 28500 ) = 25500

Brazil’s Bovespa index also shows medium-term buying support but long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 58000 would indicate another test of primary support at 50000. Breakout above 58000 is unlikely, given global market conditions and falling iron ore prices, but would signal reversal to a primary up-trend.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 50 – ( 58 – 50 ) = 42

October 17, 2011

Nasdaq hints at recovery

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 11700. Breakout would warn of a primary advance, but the market is prone to false signals because of excessive volatility and it would be prudent to wait for confirmation. Respect of 11700, or a false break above 11700, would re-visit support at 10600.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

The S&P 500 is similarly testing resistance at 1230 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 1350, while respect would indicate another test of 1100. Breakout above the declining trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests nothing more than a secondary reaction (bear market rally). See the monthly chart.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1250 – 1100 ) = 950

The Nasdaq 100 index, however, broke through 2350 and is headed for its July high. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates reversal to an up-trend. Breakout above 2440 would confirm, offering a target of 2800*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 2800

October 13, 2011

Crude and commodities rally

Brent Crude rallied off support at $99/$100 per barrel, headed for a test of the upper trend channel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above its descending trendline warns that the down-trend is weakening. Breakout above the upper channel would test the 2011 high of $125/barrel.

Brent Crude

CRB Commodities Index similarly rallied off support at 300. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is still declining and failure to reach the upper trend channel (on the price chart) would warn of an accelerating down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

October 12, 2011

Gold miners’ broadening wedge

Amex Gold Bugs Index continues in a broadening wedge formation. Downward breakouts occur 66% of the time, according to Thomas Bulkowski. Failure of support at 500 would offer a target of 370*.

Amex Gold Bugs Index

* Target calculation: 500 – ( 630 – 500 ) = 370

October 12, 2011

Dollar retreats, gold rises

The US Dollar Index is retracing to test support at 76.00. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and offer a target of 84.00* for the next advance. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84

Spot gold is testing the declining trendline and resistance at $1700/ounce. Respect would warn of a decline to test $1500*. The primary trend remains upward and will resume if the Fed introduces further quantitative easing in the months ahead.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500

October 11, 2011

New Zealand

The NZX 50 Index broke through resistance at 3350 to signal an advance to 3450, with a long-term target of the 2011 high. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates buying pressure.

NZX 50 Index

* Target calculation: 3350 + ( 3350 – 3100 ) = 3600

October 10, 2011

India Sensex and Singapore STI

Bullish divergence on India’s SENSEX 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests a double bottom reversal. Breakout above 17200 would confirm, signaling a bear market rally with a target of 18600*. Note that the primary down-trend would remain downward.

SENSEX

* Target calculation: 17200 + ( 17200 – 15800 ) = 18600

Singapore’s Straits Times Index recovered above short-term resistance at 2650 after a sharp fall over several weeks. We could see a bear market rally to 2900, but the primary trend, as signaled by declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, remains in a strong down-trend.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 2900 – 2700 ) = 2500

October 10, 2011

ASX 200 trend channel

The ASX 200 index is testing its upper trend channel. Low volume is typical for a Monday — before US and European markets open for the week — but the low range indicates caution on the part of buyers. Reversal below 4100 would indicate a down-swing to the lower trend channel, while follow-through above 4200 would suggest a bear market rally to 4500. The primary trend remains down, however, and reversal below 4000 would warn of a decline to 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

October 10, 2011

TSX 60 finds support

Canada’s TSX 60 index found support between 620 and 650. A rally to test resistance at 730 is indicated, but the primary trend is down and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal selling pressure. Reversal below 650 would warn of a decline to 580*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580

October 5, 2011

Kiwi dollar

Apologies. I messed up the links at the bottom of the Trading Diary newsletter. For the correct link click here. Correct links are also available on the Trading Diary web page and under Recent Posts in the right margin of this page.

The Aussie dollar found support between $1.23 and $1.24 against its Kiwi counterpart. The trend channel has weakened and AUDNZD is now likely to range between $1.24 and $1.28. The primary trend remains down, however, and failure of support would offer a target of $1.20*.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20