S&P 500 threatens correction

The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1780; breakout would warn of a correction. Initial support is at 1710, with primary support and the long-term trendline at 1630. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1810 is now unlikely.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 is already undergoing a correction after breaking support at 5300. Failure of support between 4900 and 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates far more severe selling pressure. A fall below zero would suggest reversal to a primary down-trend, but only breach of 4650 would confirm.

ASX 200

Bullish outlook despite retracement

Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced to test short-term support at 16000. Breach would suggest a correction to test the rising trendline at 15500. Mild bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Target for the advance is 16600* and respect of support at 15500 would suggest another advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is also testing short-term support, but at 1800*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a correction to the rising trendline around 1730. Respect of the trendline would indicate a healthy up-trend.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to indicate low market risk.

VIX Index

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a huge surge on the monthly chart, with rising Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. A bullish sign for the US economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 70 ) = 130

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below 3350 would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations are typical of an accelerating trend. Unsustainable in the long-term, accelerating trends almost inevitably lead to a sharp correction.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

Overall, I am bullish on the US market. Attempting to time entries and exits from secondary movements is expensive and our strategy at Research & Investment is to remain in the market unless risks become elevated.

Dow leads US climb

Dow Jones Industrial Average is advancing strongly, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 16600*. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely, however, and respect would confirm the advance. Reversal below 15700 is unlikely, but would test the secondary rising trendline around 15500.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the target of 1800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1750 would warn of a correction to the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below the latest trendline would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations reflect an accelerating trend, or blow-off. Steep gains, however, almost inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

S&P 500 Momentum and Economic Outlook

This an example of the monthly updates from the new Research & Investment joint venture between Incredible Charts and Porter Capital.

S&P 500 Momentum – October 2013

Latest Performance

S&P 500 Momentum is based on Porter Capital’s successful ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy which returned +38.43% for the 12 months ended 31st October 2013. Actual historical performance for the S&P 500 is not yet available.

Sectors

The portfolio includes the usual technology, Internet retail and biotechnology sectors but also insurance, airlines, and oil & gas exploration.

Stock Performance

Star performer Netflix (NFLX) climbed from $80 to above $350 over the last year, breaking its 2011 high of $300. Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate strong buying pressure.

GILD

Stock Selections

Hold

We continue to hold the following stocks:

  • Symbol only available to subscribers
  • NFLX
  • Symbol only available to subscribers
  • Symbol only available to subscribers
  • Symbol only available to subscribers
  • Symbol only available to subscribers

New Additions

There are four new additions this month:

  • Symbol only available to subscribers
  • GILD
  • Symbol only available to subscribers
  • Symbol only available to subscribers

Biotech newcomer Gilead Sciences (GILD) climbed from $20 to above $70 over the last three years. Short corrections indicate buying pressure and respect of support at $64 would signal a fresh advance. Twiggs Money Flow troughs high above zero also suggest strong buying pressure.

GILD

Disposals

Stocks replaced are:

  • REGN (SELL)
  • BSX (SELL)
  • GT (SELL)
  • CELG (SELL)

Regneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rose from $30 to $300 over the last three years, but encountered strong resistance at $300/$320 and has fallen outside our top ten ranking. Breach of support at $270 and the rising trendline would warn that the primary trend is weakening. Recovery above $320, however, would most likely see it regain its position in the portfolio.

TRIP

Market Outlook

Market Filters

Our market filters indicate low to moderate risk and we maintain full exposure to equities.

General Outlook

As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a “bubble”. Little attention is devoted to the fact that bubbles can last for several years, and sometimes even decades. The main driver of both stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles is debt. Anna Schwartz, co-author with Milton Friedman of A Monetary History of the United States (1963) described the relationship to the Wall Street Journal:

If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates …..

Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.

US Household Debt

A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.

Corporate debt (green line below) is expanding rapidly as corporations take advantage of the opportunity to issue new debt at low interest rates, but household debt (red) is still shrinking.

US Household Debt

There are pockets of concern, like the rapid recovery in NYSE margin debt, but risk of a Dotcom-style stock market bubble or a 2002/2007 housing bubble is low while household debt contracts.

Regards,

Colin Twiggs

 

Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.

~ Aristotle

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq bouyant

The S&P 500 is advancing strongly but expect some resistance at the target of 1800*. Penetration of the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests that selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 1750 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a correction to at least the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

Bellwether transport stock Fedex exceeded its target of $130*, with rising Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. A bullish sign for the US economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 70 ) = 130

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to indicate low market risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend, breaking resistance at 3400 after a brief consolidation. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Accelerating trends, or blow-offs, enjoy rapid gains but inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

Dow signals fresh advance

Dow Jones Industrial Average broke resistance at 15700, ending the consolidation of recent months and signaling an advance to 16600*. Expect retracement to test the new support level in the next few weeks. Respect would confirm the advance. Penetration of the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 15500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 14800.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is testing short-term resistance at 1775. Breakout would offer a short-term target of 1800*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears to have ended. Reversal below 1750 is unlikely at present, but would indicate a correction to at least 1710.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1775 + ( 1775 – 1750 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to indicate low market risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend, with Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Short retracement is likely and breakout above 3400 would suggest another advance. Accelerating trends, or blow-offs, enjoy rapid gains but inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3400

Nasdaq accelerates while Dow and S&P500 hesitate

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend — as indicated by successively steeper trendlines and a rising trendline on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Accelerating trends, or blow-offs, are well-known for rapid gains but inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3400

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The S&P 500 is edging higher on the weekly chart, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of rising selling pressure. Reversal below the secondary trendline at 1700 would indicate a correction to the primary trendline and primary support at 1630.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1730 + ( 1730 – 1650 ) = 1810

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 15700. Breakout would offer a target of 16600*. Respect of the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would confirm the earlier bearish divergence and warn of a correction to primary support at 14800. Breach of 14800 remains unlikely, but would signal a reversal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

Canada’s TSX 60 is retracing after a strong spurt. Duration of retracements reflect trend strength. Another trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would suggest strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX below 15 also reflects low market risk.

TSX 60 VIX

US & Canada: Rising buying pressure

The S&P 500 short retracement at 1750 is a bullish sign, confirming the advance to 1800*. Rising 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1730 is most unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1650.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1730 + ( 1730 – 1650 ) = 1810

VIX below 15 flags low market risk.

VIX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of resistance at 15700; breakout would offer a target of 16600*. Recovery above the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would negate the earlier bearish divergence. Breach of 14800 is unlikely, but would warn of a reversal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The Nasdaq 100, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs well above zero, indicates strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

Canada’s TSX 60 is advancing toward its target of 800*, the trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is now most unlikely.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

S&P 500 and Nasdaq bullish while Dow hesitates

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1730, signaling an advance to 1790/1800*. Follow-through above 1750 would confirm. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow troughs close to zero indicate buying pressure. Reversal below 1730 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1650.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790

VIX below 15 signals low market risk.

VIX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of 15700, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a reversal. Breach of 14800 would confirm. Overall sentiment remains positive, however, and TMF recovery above the descending trendline (20%) would be a bullish sign. Breakout above 15700 would offer a target of 16600*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The Nasdaq 100 is contrastingly bullish, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs well above zero signaling strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3050 + ( 3050 – 2800 ) = 3300

S&P 500 breakout

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1700/1710, indicating a primary advance to 1790/1800*. Troughs close to zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggest buying pressure. Reversal below 1675 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1630.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790