Tag: S&P 500 Index

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US & China lift ASX

The S&P 500 rallied strongly this week despite a weak bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of selling pressure. Recovery above 1700 would indicate another advance, while a new August high on Twiggs Money Flow would further strengthen the signal, offering a target of 1850*. Reversal below 1630 is unlikely, but would re-test primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1850

Dow Jones Industrial Average displayed a stronger bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, increasing the likelihood of reversal below 14800. But positive sentiment is growing and recovery above 15650 now seems as likely.
S&P 500 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite penetrated resistance at 2200 and the descending trendline, suggesting that the down-trend is ending. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another correction to test primary support at 1950, but breach of support is now less likely. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure; a trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5250, buoyed by positive sentiment in China and the US. Breakout would suggest a primary advance, but a lower peak on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would continue to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 5150 remains as likely, and would test medium-term support at 4900/5000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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Dow warns of reversal but S&P 500 hesitates

Dow Jones Industrial Average bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Failure of primary support at 14500/14600 would confirm. Recovery above 15000 would defer the test of primary support, but strong selling pressure should not be ignored.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Friday’s long-legged doji candle on the S&P 500 (daily chart) indicates hesitancy. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest that the correction is over, while a fall below the longer-term rising trendline would warn that momentum is slowing and another test of primary support at 1560 is likely.  Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

VIX below 20, however, continues to suggest a bull market.
VIX Index

Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow and consolidation above the preceding peak at 3040/3050 on the Nasdaq 100 also favors continuation of the primary up-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

Signals are mixed at present, but a stronger bear signal on the Dow, or an upward spike on the VIX, would tilt probabilities towards a reversal.

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Global markets bearish but ASX, India find support

US markets are closed for Labor Day. The S&P 500 ended last week testing its rising trendline and support at 1630. Breach would reinforce the bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating a test of primary support at 1560. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at present, but would warn the correction is ending. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

VIX below 20 suggests a bull market.
S&P 500 Index

The FTSE 100 closed above initial resistance at 6500. Follow-through would suggest the correction is over and another attempt at 6750 likely. Strong bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of selling pressure and breakout above 6750 is unlikely. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a test of primary support at 6000.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX encountered stubborn resistance at 8500. Reversal below 8000 would test primary support at 7600, while breakout above 8500 would offer a target of 9000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8400 + ( 8400 – 7800 ) = 9000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered above 13500 and follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the correction is over and another test of resistance at 15000 is likely. Reversal below 13200, however, would indicate a test of primary support at 12500. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2100/2120. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is ending.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong support at 18000/18500, evidenced by the long tails on the weekly candles and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.  Expect another test of resistance at 20500. Follow-through above 19000 would strengthen the signal.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of 5250 after breaking resistance at 5150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would be a welcome sign, suggesting another primary advance, but respect of resistance and a lower peak on Twiggs Money Flow would warn of a reversal.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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S&P 500 correction but Nasdaq and TSX advance

The S&P 500 rallied off support at 1640/1650, but the correction is still underway. Respect of resistance at 1675 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would indicate continuation. Only a breach of primary support at 1560, however, would signal reversal to a down-trend.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

VIX reversal below 15 indicates low market risk, favoring a primary up-trend.

VIX Index

The tech-laden Nasdaq 100 Index holding above its preceding peak at 3050 reflects a healthy up-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

The TSX Composite Index respected its rising trendline, suggesting a healthy up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflect strong buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would offer a target of 13200*, but expect some resistance at 12900/13000.
TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 12400 ) = 13200

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Global selling pressure

The S&P 500 Index broke medium-term support at 1650 and is headed for a test of the rising trendline. Respect would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. This is also evidenced by the marginal new high in August. A test of primary support at 1560 is likely. Breach would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

Dow Jones Europe Index also displays marginal new highs in May and August. Penetration of the rising trendline indicates the up-trend is losing momentum — also indicated by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Reversal below support at 290 would strengthen the warning, but only failure of support at 270 would signal a trend reversal.

DJ Europe Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ran into strong resistance at 2100. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950, suggesting a decline to 1800*. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would signal that a bottom has formed.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke medium-term support at 13500. Follow-through below 13250 would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500. Penetration of the rising trendline suggests that the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also warns of a reversal. Recovery above the declining trendline is less likely, but would indicate the correction has ended.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex broke primary support at 18500, following through below 18000 to remove any doubt. The primary trend has reversed after a triple top and now offers a target of 16500*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms selling pressure. Recovery above 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a broadening top around the 2010/2011 high of 5000. Correction to 4900 would be quite acceptable, garnering support for an advance to the upper border, but breach of 4900 would indicate a failed swing, warning of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 4650 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure; strengthened if the indicator reverses below zero. Respect of support at 5000 is less likely, despite the long tail on today’s candle, but would offer a target of 5300*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 5000 ) = 5300

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S&P 500 breaks support

The S&P 500 broke support at 1675 and is testing 1650. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1650 would test the rising trendline around 1625. Respect (of the trendline) would indicate a healthy up-trend, while failure would test primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

There is a lower trendline, however, on the monthly chart. Breach of support at 1560 would indicate a test of the (super) trendline.
S&P 500 Index

The VIX below 15 continues to indicate low market risk, favoring a primary up-trend. We need to watch this closely, however, as a spike above 0.20 may warn that something is amiss.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index rallied off support at 12400, indicating a test of resistance at 12900/13000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of resistance would suggest another down-swing to 12000/11750, but breakout above 12900/13000 is as likely and would offer a long-term target of 14000*.
TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

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S&P 500 healthy up-trend

The S&P 500 is again testing resistance at 1700 after a short retracement. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure, but breakout above 1700 would signal an advance to 1800*. Reversal below 1675 would test support at 1650.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

But the primary up-trend shown on the quarterly chart is healthy and, while correction to the rising trendline would be reasonable, trend reversal is unlikely.
S&P 500 Index

The VIX below 15 indicates low market risk.

VIX Index

Canada’s TSX 60 VIX is similarly bullish.

TSX 60 VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index is testing support at 12400. Penetration of the declining trendline would indicate the correction is over and advance to 12900/13000 likely. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest a healthy up-trend. Breach of support remains as likely, however, and would test 12250. In the long-term, breakout above 12900/13000 would offer a long-term target of 14000*.
TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

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S&P 500 and Europe cause ASX 200 to hesitate

Mildly bearish sentiment in the US and Europe is causing hesitancy on the ASX 200, while China continues to consolidate above long-term support.

The S&P 500 retreated below resistance at 1700, indicating a test of support at 1675. Longish tails on the last two candles are indicative of buying.  Recovery above 1700 would signal continuation of the advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, reflects selling pressure and breach of 1675 is more likely, testing the stronger support level at 1650. Primary support is some way off at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

Recovery of Dow Jones Europe Index above 290 indicates an advance to 310*. Follow-through above 295 strengthens the signal, but divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests that a top may be forming. Reversal of TMO below zero would strengthen the warning.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 290+ ( 290 – 270 ) = 310

China’s Shanghai Index holds steady above long-term support at 1950. Breakout above 2100 would suggest a rally to the downward trendline, but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1750*.

Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 1950 – ( 2150 – 1950 ) = 1750

Australia’s ASX 200 found support at 5000 after falling sharply on Wednesday. Recovery above 5100 would indicate another test of 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow close to zero suggests hesitancy. Breach of 5000 is as likely, and would test the stronger support level of 4850, providing a more robust foundation for further advances.

ASX 200 Index

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S&P 500 and TSX advance

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1675 but the short candle indicates (short-term) selling pressure. Follow-through above the May high at 1690 would confirm the primary advance, with a target of 1800*. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1650 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The VIX below 15 indicates market optimism.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index has advanced strongly since the bear trap below 12000.  Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 12900.  Breakout would offer a long-term target of 14000*. Reversal below 12000 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend; confirmed if 11750 is broken.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

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S&P500 tide changing

The VIX retreated below 15, signaling that market risk is falling.

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 is testing its declining trendline after a brief consolidation above 1600.  Penetration would suggest that the correction is over; confirmed if resistance at 1650 is broken. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is leveling out and a trough above the line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for an advance would be 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The TSX Composite index penetrated its declining trendline, suggesting that the correction is over. Follow-through above 12250 would strengthen the signal, while a rise above 12400 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure. Target for an advance would be 12900/13000. Reversal below 11900 is now unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

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