South African Rand Archives - Page 3 of 3

November 17, 2011

Brazilian Real and South African Rand

The Brazilian Real has fallen sharply against the greenback since the government took measures to stem the inflow of funds on capital account. Breach of medium-term support at $0.56 would indicate respect of the descending trendline and another test of primary support at $0.52. In the long-term, failure of primary support would warn of a fall to $0.40.

Brazilian Real

* Target calculation: 0.52 – ( 0.64 – 0.52 ) = 0.40

The South African Rand is weakening against both the US and Aussie dollar. The Aussie (another resources currency) shows an accelerating up-trend against the Rand. Breakout above R8.30 would signal an advance to R9.00*. Accelerating up-trends, however, inevitably lead to blow-offs — as in 2008.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 7.50 + ( 7.50 – 6.00 ) = 9.00

October 6, 2011

Rand triangle

Apologies. I messed up the links at the bottom of the Trading Diary newsletter. For the correct link click here. Correct links are also available on the Trading Diary web page and under Recent Posts in the right margin of this page.

The US Dollar looks like it is forming a triangle against the South African rand. Breakout above the upper border would signal continuation of the advance — with a target of R9.00* — while breach of the secondary trendline would warn of a correction to the longer-term trendline (at 7.35).

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 8.30 + ( 8.50 – 7.70 ) = 9.10

August 25, 2011

Rand weakens

A three-year chart shows strong support for the US dollar at R6.50. Earlier breach of the descending trendline and rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum both warn that the Rand is likely to weaken. Now we have a break above resistance at R7.00 testing the 2011 high of R7.35. Breakout would signal an advance to R8.00*.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 7.30 + ( 7.30 – 6.50 ) = 8.10