primary support Archives - Page 3 of 3

November 3, 2011

Commodities and crude oil

CRB Commodities Index is testing the descending trendline at 320. Breakout would suggest that the down-trend has weakened and the index is forming a bottom; respect would indicate another test of primary support at 295. Breach of the long term rising trendline would warn of another test of 2009 lows at 200.

CRB Commodities Index

Brent crude is also testing its descending trendline, at $110/barrel. Respect would signal another test of primary support at $99, while breakout would suggest that the down-trend has ended. In the long-term, breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to around $70/barrel.

IPE Brent Afternoon Markers

November 1, 2011

Europe falls on Greek referendum

Dow Jones Europe Index has fallen hard since Greece announced it will hold a referendum on the austerity measures it has to take in return for the EU/IMF bailout proposal. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of medium-term support at 230 would signal another test of primary support at 210. And failure of 210 would signal a decline to the 2009 low of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 270 – 210 ) = 150

October 31, 2011April 18, 2024

Australia retraces to find support

The ASX 200 broke out above its descending trendline — warning that the down-trend was ending — but ran into selling pressure. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow confirms the tall shadow on Friday’s candle. Respect of support at 4100 would suggest a primary up-trend, while failure would re-test primary support at 3850.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4300 + ( 4300 – 3900 ) = 4700

Support levels are clearer on the weekly chart.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

October 31, 2011

Canada TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 index is headed for a test of resistance at 720/730 on the weekly chart. Expect a retracement. Respect of the trendline would warn of another test of primary support. Breakout above the descending trendline would signal that the primary down-trend has weakened and a bottom is forming. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough that respects the zero line would indicate strong buying pressure.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 640 ) = 800

September 5, 2011

JSE Overall Index retreats

The JSE Overall Index retreated below the former primary support level of 30000, strong volume [R] warning of selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate another test of support at 28400. Failure of support would offer a target of 26000*, but this is not yet a foregone conclusion, with an up-tick in volume [S] indicating some buying support.

Johannesburg Overall Index

* Target calculation: 28.5 – ( 31 – 28.5 ) = 26

August 23, 2011

NZ bucks trend

New Zealand is one of the few markets that is bucking the trend — its agriculture-based economy fairly insulated from the global down-turn. ENZL, the MSCI New Zealand ETF, recovered above its former primary support level at 31.50 after strong bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. While technically still a bear market, retracement that respects the new support level of 31.50 would confirm a test of 34.

iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund (ENZL)