Tag: Nikkei 225

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Asian stocks fall but ASX 200 resilient

The Asia-Pacific region reacted to Friday’s sell-off in US markets, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng currently down 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. The Shanghai exchange is closed for a public holiday, while India’s DJ15 is down 0.67%. The ASX 200, however, rallied towards the close, losing only 0.17%.

The monthly chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to display a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of long-term selling pressure. Reversal below 14000 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is as likely, however, and would indicate another advance.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 16000

A monthly chart shows the Shanghai Composite Index on the flight path for a soft landing. Successive falls over the past 5 years have all exceeded the previous trough by roughly 200 points and this seems unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. The problem with a managed descent is that it is likely to endure for a lot longer than a short sharp crash. Breach of primary support at 1950 would therefore offer a target of 1800.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index on the other hand displays a large bullish ascending triangle. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero indicates buying pressure Breakout above 24000 would signal a primary advance. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Long-term target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 17000 ) = 31000

India’s Sensex encountered resistance at 22500 and is likely to retrace to test 22000. Respect would signal an advance to 23000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of short/medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 21500 is unlikely, but would indicate another correction.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

The ASX 200 proved surprisingly resilient, rallying toward the close. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure, but expect strong resistance at 5450/5460. Breakout above 5450/5460 would signal an advance to 5600*. Respect of resistance or a false break, however, would warn of another test of support at 5300 and possibly a stronger correction. Primary support at 5050 does not at this stage appear threatened and the index remains in an up-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600

ASX 200 VIX below 12 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

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Asia: India bullish while China finds support

India’s Sensex retraced after encountering sellers at 22000, but Monday’s engulfing candle indicates support. Breakout above 22000 would signal an advance to 23000*. Reversal below 21300 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction. Momentum troughs above zero suggest a healthy primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of 14000 after a false break above 15000. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure; reversal below zero would also indicate a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 14000 – ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 13000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index found support at 1990/2000. Follow-through above the rising trendline would indicate another bear rally. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a decline to 1850.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

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Japan: Hesitant recovery

The Nikkei 225 recovered above 15000, signaling another attempt at 16000. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but bearish divergence flags long-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if support at 14000 is breached.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

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Nikkei finds Yen support

The US Dollar found solid support at ¥101 against the Yen. Recovery above ¥103 would suggest an advance to ¥111*. Breakout above ¥106 would confirm. Recovery above the December 2013 high on 13-week Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal. Breach of support at ¥101 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at ¥96.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 101 ) = 111

The Nikkei 225 found support at 14000. Recovery above 15000 would indicate another attempt at 16000. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

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Japan: Dollar supports Nikkei

The US Dollar found support at ¥101 against the Yen. Recovery above the May high at ¥104 would suggest a healthy up-trend, while breakout above ¥106 would offer a target of ¥110*. Divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum remains bearish, but another trough above zero would reverse this. Breach of support at ¥101 now seems unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 102 ) = 110

A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would assist Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 found support at 14000 on the monthly chart. Recovery above 15000 would suggest another advance, while breakout above 16000 would confirm. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

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Japan: Nikkei falls as Dollar weakens

The US Dollar is testing support at ¥102 to ¥103 against the Yen. Breach of the rising trendline would strengthen the warning from a bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Reversal of Momentum below zero would suggest a primary down-trend. Recovery above ¥104 is less likely, but would offer a target of ¥110*.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 102 ) = 110

A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would assist Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 is testing support at 15000 after penetrating its rising trendline. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 15000 would indicate a strong correction, while a Twiggs Money Flow cross below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

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Weakening yen boosts Japanese stocks

The US Dollar retreated to test new support at ¥102 to ¥103. Respect is likely and would signal an advance to ¥110*. A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate will assist Japanese stocks.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 102 ) = 110

The Nikkei 225 retreated below its new support level at 16000, but respect of the rising trendline would confirm a healthy up-trend. 13-week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero suggests healthy buying pressure. Reversal below 15000 is unlikely but would indicate a strong correction.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 15000 ) = 17000

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Nikkei 225 retreats as Yen falls

Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated below support at 16000 and is testing the long-term trendline. Breach of support at 15000 would warn of a test of primary support at 13200, while recovery above 16000 would suggest a primary advance to 17500*. A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would strengthen the bull signal.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

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Japan bullish, but India & China reflect selling pressure

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is retracing to test its latest support level at 16000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow after a trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would strengthen the signal. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite breached support at 2080, confirming the primary down-trend. Expect support at 1950: the low of December 2012 and respected in 2013. Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Recovery above 2080 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong resistance at 21200 and declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of support at 20200. Failure would warn of a primary down-trend. Breakout above 21200 is unlikely in the next few weeks, but would suggest a primary advance to 22000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

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Bullish lead-in to the New Year

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1810, signaling an advance to 1910*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910

The FTSE 100 completed its correction with a break above the descending trendline. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 6800 would offer a target of 7200*, but expect strong resistance at the 1999 high of 6950/7000.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke resistance at 3100, signaling an advance to 3350*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend. Retracement to test the new support level is likely; respect would strengthen the bull signal.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2850 ) = 3350

Germany’s DAX similarly broke resistance at 9400, offering a target of 10200*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9400 + ( 9400 – 8600 ) = 10200

India’s SENSEX is testing resistance at 21200 after a correction that respected support at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22200*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.

BSE Sensex

* Target calculation: 21200 + ( 21200 – 20200 ) = 22200

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 16000, supported by a strong rise in the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. Breakout signals a primary advance with a long-term target of 19000*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000- 13000 ) = 19000

A single cloud on the horizon, the Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2080. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of 1900*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest support.

Shanghai Composite

* Target calculation: 2080 – ( 2260 – 2080 ) = 1900

The ASX 200 is lagging other markets because of negative influence from China. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 5450 would be cause for concern if followed by reversal below 5300. Breakout above 5450 and completion of a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would signal another primary advance, with a target of 5900*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5000 ) = 5900

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