Tag: Nikkei 225 Index

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Asian stocks revive

India’s Sensex is retracing to test the new support level at 25000. Respect would confirm an advance to 26000*. The primary trend is up and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Breach of 25000 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of 24000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 16000 ) = 26000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is headed for another test of 2150 after breaking resistance at 2050. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero signals medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2150 is unlikely, but would complete a triple-bottom reversal. Reversal below primary support at 1990/2000 also appears unlikely at present, but would signal a decline to 1850*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

Japan’s Nikkei 225 found resistance at 15000/15200 on the weekly chart. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero signals long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 15200 would target 16000. Reversal below 14800 is unlikely, but would signal a test of primary support at 14000.

Nikkei 225

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is headed for a test of long-term resistance at 24000 on the monthly chart. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 24000 would signal a primary advance to 27000*. Reversal below 21000 and the rising trendline is most unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Long-term target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 21000 ) = 27000

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Asia: India bullish but China weak

India’s Sensex found support at 24000. Recovery above 25000 would signal a fresh advance to 26000*. Breach of support is unlikely, but would warn of further correction. The primary trend is up and bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates nothing more than medium-term selling pressure from the present correction.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 16000 ) = 26000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test primary support at 2000. Follow-through below 1990 would signal a decline to 1850*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero signals medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 2150 is unlikely, but would complete a triple-bottom reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded off primary support and is testing resistance at 15000. Follow-through above 15200 would signal another test of 16000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 20% would confirm long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 14000 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

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Nikkei warning

A weakening Dollar/Yen exchange rate is hurting Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 is testing support at 14000 after breach of the rising trendline indicated weak momentum. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of 14000 would strengthen the signal, while breach of 13200 would confirm. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely, but would suggest another advance.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

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Asian markets and ASX cautious

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. Breakout above 15000 would signal a primary advance to 18000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 30% would support this.  Reversal below 13000 is now unlikely.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite breached its descending trendline at 2200, indicating the down-trend is over. A long wick (or shadow) on last week’s candle, however, suggests resistance — and reversal below 2150 and the rising trendline would warn of a bull trap. But rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal medium-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 2350 is likely, and would indicate a test of 2450.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex also displays a long wick on last week’s candle. Expect strong resistance at 20500. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at 18000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure, but long-term direction is unclear.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is cautiously testing long-term resistance at 5250. Europe is bullish and Asian markets are rising, but the Dow and S&P 500 remain mildly bearish. Respect of resistance at 5250, indicated by reversal below 5150 and the rising trendline, would present another bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating long-term selling pressure. Breakout above 5250, however, would signal another primary advance, with a long-term target of 5750*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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Global markets bearish but ASX, India find support

US markets are closed for Labor Day. The S&P 500 ended last week testing its rising trendline and support at 1630. Breach would reinforce the bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating a test of primary support at 1560. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at present, but would warn the correction is ending. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

VIX below 20 suggests a bull market.
S&P 500 Index

The FTSE 100 closed above initial resistance at 6500. Follow-through would suggest the correction is over and another attempt at 6750 likely. Strong bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of selling pressure and breakout above 6750 is unlikely. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a test of primary support at 6000.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX encountered stubborn resistance at 8500. Reversal below 8000 would test primary support at 7600, while breakout above 8500 would offer a target of 9000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8400 + ( 8400 – 7800 ) = 9000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered above 13500 and follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the correction is over and another test of resistance at 15000 is likely. Reversal below 13200, however, would indicate a test of primary support at 12500. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2100/2120. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is ending.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong support at 18000/18500, evidenced by the long tails on the weekly candles and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.  Expect another test of resistance at 20500. Follow-through above 19000 would strengthen the signal.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of 5250 after breaking resistance at 5150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would be a welcome sign, suggesting another primary advance, but respect of resistance and a lower peak on Twiggs Money Flow would warn of a reversal.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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Global selling pressure

The S&P 500 Index broke medium-term support at 1650 and is headed for a test of the rising trendline. Respect would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. This is also evidenced by the marginal new high in August. A test of primary support at 1560 is likely. Breach would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

Dow Jones Europe Index also displays marginal new highs in May and August. Penetration of the rising trendline indicates the up-trend is losing momentum — also indicated by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Reversal below support at 290 would strengthen the warning, but only failure of support at 270 would signal a trend reversal.

DJ Europe Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ran into strong resistance at 2100. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950, suggesting a decline to 1800*. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would signal that a bottom has formed.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke medium-term support at 13500. Follow-through below 13250 would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500. Penetration of the rising trendline suggests that the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also warns of a reversal. Recovery above the declining trendline is less likely, but would indicate the correction has ended.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex broke primary support at 18500, following through below 18000 to remove any doubt. The primary trend has reversed after a triple top and now offers a target of 16500*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms selling pressure. Recovery above 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a broadening top around the 2010/2011 high of 5000. Correction to 4900 would be quite acceptable, garnering support for an advance to the upper border, but breach of 4900 would indicate a failed swing, warning of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 4650 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure; strengthened if the indicator reverses below zero. Respect of support at 5000 is less likely, despite the long tail on today’s candle, but would offer a target of 5300*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 5000 ) = 5300

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China rally spurs ASX advance

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rallied from support at 1950 to test medium-term resistance at 2100 on the weekly chart. Breakout would indicate a test of the descending trendline at 2200. The primary trend is down, but penetration of the trendline would suggest that a bottom has formed.

Shanghai Composite Index

The Shenzhen Composite Index has been in a primary up-trend since May, but displayed weakness with a second, shaky test of support at 900. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above the last high at 1040 would confirm — a bullish sign for the Shanghai Composite.

Shenzhen Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing medium-term support at 13500. Breach would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500, but respect of the zero line by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would suggest the primary up-trend is intact. Recovery above 14500 would strengthen the signal.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex respected primary support at 18500. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate moderate buying pressure. Expect another test of resistance at 20500 (i.e. a test of 20500 is likely). Breach of support, while unlikely, would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if there is follow-through below 18000.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 5120, signaling an advance to the May peak at 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to at least 4850.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 5250 would indicate another advance, but high volatility, shown by the broadening formation of the last few months, will require further evidence to confirm this.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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ASX 200 finds resistance, China tests support

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 found resistance at 15000, but the primary trend is upward and retracement that respects the rising trendline would suggest another advance. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate selling pressure.  Follow-through above 15000 would test the earlier high at 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its May peak indicates buying pressure. Respect of resistance at 20200 is unlikely, but would re-test the rising trendline.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow band below resistance at 5000 — a bullish sign suggesting a test of the May peak at 5250. Highs of 5000 in 2010 and 2011 give this level additional significance and breakout would indicate an advance to 5850*. Follow-through above 5250 would confirm. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero merely indicates short-term selling pressure. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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ASX 200 consolidates while Asia rallies

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continued its rally on Monday, headed for a test of 2150. Last week’s tall shadow (or candlewick) indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and reversal below 1950 would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

Last week’s dragonfly doji on Japan’s Nikkei 225 also indicates selling pressure, but the higher close hints this may have been resolved. Monday’s open is flat and reversal below last week’s low would warn of another test of primary support at 12500. Penetration of the rising trendline or a lower peak on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would warn of trend weakness, while breach of primary support at 12500 would signal reversal.  But that is some way off and follow-through above 15000 would suggest another advance; confirmed if resistance at 16000 is broken.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for another test of resistance at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its May peak would indicate healthy buying pressure. Respect of resistance at 20200 is unlikely, but would re-test the rising trendline.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating below resistance at 5000. Narrow consolidation is a bullish sign, but reversal below 4850 would warn of another test of primary support at 4650. Breakout above 5000 remains likely and would indicate an advance to 5850* — confirmed if resistance at 5250 is broken. Breach of primary support is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate healthy buying pressure.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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ASX 200 rallies despite weakness in Asia

An outside day reversal on Japan’s Nikkei 225 warns of retracement to test support at 13500. Respect of support — or a trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy up-trend. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 12500.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing long-term support at 1950 — as shown on the monthly chart. Failure of support is likely and would warn of a test of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Respect of support at 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2400/2500.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex respected its rising trendline and is likely to test resistance at 20000. Breach of resistance would signal a primary advance, with a target of 22000*. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index remains weak after finding support at 3100. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero after bearish divergence would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 3100 would confirm. Recovery above 3300, while unlikely, would signal a fresh primary advance.

Straits Times Index

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 4860, indicating the correction is over. Follow-through above 4900 would strengthen the signal. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates healthy medium-term buying pressure. Breach of resistance at 5000 would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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