Crude futures (Light Crude November 2015 – CLX2015) are testing short-term support at $44 per barrel. Breach is likely and would indicate another test of the recent low at $38.50. Failure of that level would offer a (long-term) target of $30*. Recovery above the descending trendline and resistance at $52 per barrel is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.
* Target calculation: 40 – ( 50 – 40 ) = 30
Crude prices rallied sharply in the last few days, boosted by downward revision of US oil output and hints that OPEC may consider production cuts. October 2015 futures (Nymex Light Crude – CLV2015) tested resistance at $50/barrel before falling just as steeply on weak manufacturing data out of China.
Expect another test of support at $38/barrel. Breach of support would offer a target of $26/barrel*.
*Target: 38 – ( 50 – 38 ) = 26
Nymex Light Crude continues its sharp descent, with August 2015 futures breaking medium-term support at $54 per barrel.
The next major support level is primary support at $44.
Nymex Light Crude broke resistance at $55/barrel, signaling the end of the narrow consolidation of the past few months. Some have heralded this as the end of the bear trend and start of a bull market.
If we examine the recent consolidation — shown here on June 2015 Light Crude futures — it is clear that it is broadening, with the second trough below the first, rather than rectangular. Peaks are likely to follow a similar pattern; so a higher peak does not necessarily mean a breakout. Broadening wedges tend to be unreliable reversal signals and I would wait for retracement that respects the new support level at $55 to confirm the breakout.
