America’s Debt Crisis: Why Europe Is Right and Obama Is Wrong – SPIEGEL ONLINE

American economists, central bankers and fiscal policy makers have reinterpreted British economist John Maynard Keynes’s clever idea that government spending is the best way to counteract a serious economic downturn — and have turned it into a permanent prescription. In their version of the Keynesian theory, declining growth or tumbling stock prices should prompt central banks to lower interest rates and governments to come to the rescue with economic stimulus programs. US economists call this “kick-starting” the economy.

….The only problem is that this method of encouraging growth has not stimulated the US economy in recent years, but in fact has put it on a crash course. From the Asian economic crisis to the Internet and subprime mortgage bubbles, economic stimulus programs by monetary and fiscal policy makers have regularly laid the groundwork for the next crash instead of encouraging sustainable growth. In the last decade, the volume of lending in the United States grew five times as fast as the real economy.

via America’s Debt Crisis: Why Europe Is Right and Obama Is Wrong – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

With thanks to Barry Ritholz

Westpac–ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends

The Westpac–ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends reports that:

• The fall in general business conditions is sharper than in 2008/09
• Labor demand softened and availability of labor increased appreciably
• Firms’ profit expectations slumped further — the weakest since 2009.

It concludes with the following statement:

This is a survey which is sending a very clear message. It is time for the authorities to ease financial conditions. Inflation pressures are weak; labor markets are soft; and investment and export plans have softened. Westpac predicted that the Reserve Bank would cut rates in December back in mid July. The case for lower rates is now strong.

Disappointment With The Fed | ZeroHedge

Ben just disappointed the market for the first time. Whether he knew it or not he failed to beat expectations. He has been so good at managing expectations and using that as a policy tool he lost sight of how far ahead of itself the market had gotten.

……He downgraded the economy but didn’t use that as an excuse to do more. There was no new, ingenious idea. If anything they tried to clarify the commitment to hold rates low til 2013 is dependent on economic conditions remaining weak. Yet there were still 3 dissenters.

…..By disappointing some people I expect his ability to keep the market up by talking will be reduced as Investors will need to see action rather than being told vaguely that there could be action. That will take time to play out and even I have to admit he gave us something today, just not enough.

via Disappointment With The Fed | ZeroHedge.

Rate cuts are coming – macrobusiness.com.au

The recent seasonal adjustments to the CPI and the reduction in the level of underlying inflation blunts the force of the RBA’s recent argument about inflationary pressures. But, absent an offshore catalysing event, that alone won’t make them cut rates.

Rather I think that household retrenchment and saving will lower economic activity in the economy and that the RBA has overplayed the extent that the mining boom induced income will wash through the Australian economy.

Increasingly, we are getting confirmation of this theory. Unfortunately, we are seeing Australians lose jobs at an increasing rate. Data released yesterday by Westpac on consumer unemployment expectations suggests this is going to get worse.

via Rate cuts are coming – macrobusiness.com.au