Spot gold is testing short-term support at $1750/ounce as the greenback strengthens. Breach of the rising trendline would suggest that the advance is losing momentum — and breakout below $1700 would signal another test of primary support at $1600. Respect of $1700 is less likely, but would signal an advance to $1900.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
The Dollar Index is headed for another test of resistance at 80 on the strength of the euro crisis. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 80 on the index (or 5% on TMO) would confirm, offering a medium-term target of 85*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The Kiwi respected the band of resistance at $0.80/$0.82 against the greenback, warning of a primary decline. Earlier breach of the rising trendline strengthens the signal. Failure of support at $0.75 would offer a target of $0.70.
* Target calculation: 0.75 – ( 0.80 – 0.75 ) = 0.70
The chairman of the US Federal Reserve has accused China of damaging prospects for a global economic recovery through its deliberate intervention in the currency market to hold down the value of the renminbi.
…..“Right now, our concern is that the Chinese currency policy is blocking what might be a more normal recovery process in the global economy,” he said. “It is to some extent hurting the recovery”.
The greenback found support at its secondary rising trendline, with a long tail at R7.70/dollar indicating buying pressure. Respect of the secondary trendline would indicate an advance to $9.00*, while failure would test the primary trendline at R7.35.
* Target calculation: 8.40 + ( 8.40 – 7.80 ) = 9.00
The euro is testing short-term support against the greenback at $1.35/1.34. 63-Day Momentum (declining below zero) reminds we are in a primary down-trend. Failure of support would signal a decline to $1.30*.
* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30
The dollar has benefited from safe haven demand, commencing a primary advance as the euro falls. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, confirming the primary up-trend. Further retracement to test the new support level at 76.00 is likely, but respect would demonstrate strong buying support.
* Target calculation: 76 + ( 76 – 73 ) = 79
The CRB Commodities Index gapped down to its lower trend channel in response to turmoil in Europe and the resulting stronger dollar.
The Aussie followed its Canadian counterpart below parity, confirming a primary down-trend with an initial target of $0.94*.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94
Concerns about its European trading partner dragged the Pound lower against the greenback. Target for the initial primary decline is $1.53*.
* Target calculation: 1.59 – ( 1.65 – 1.59 ) = 1.53
The Swiss Franc is now headed for a test of parity against the greenback, dragged lower by its peg at €1.20.
* Target calculation: 1.20 – ( 1.40 – 1.20 ) = 1.00
The falling euro strengthens the US Dollar Index which broke through resistance at 76.00. Breakout completes the base which has been forming over the past 5 months. Retracement is likely; and respect of the new support level at 76.00 would confirm a primary up-trend, while failure would warn of a bull trap.
* Target calculation: 76 + ( 76 – 73 ) = 79
Germany’s high court threw Chancellor Merkel a lifeline, ruling that bailouts of struggling euro-countries are legal in terms of the German constitution. But they also created an obstacle to further assistance, requiring that parliament vote on any future bailout decisions. [WSJ]
The euro continues to test support at $1.40 against the greenback. Failure would signal a primary down-trend with a target of $1.30*.
* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30
