Tag: FTSE 100

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Markets rebound except for ASX

  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX Energy and Materials sectors under pressure

The S&P 500 broke through the upper border of its broadening wedge formation, signaling a fresh advance with a target of 2300*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

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  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX Energy and Materials sectors under pressure

The S&P 500 broke through the upper border of its broadening wedge formation, signaling a fresh advance with a target of 2300*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1800 ) = 2300

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9400/9500, signaling another test of 10000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow refllects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also headed for a test of its long-term high at 6900/6950. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6500 is unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is weaker, undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero. Penetration of primary support at 5120/5150, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

ASX 200 Materials (15.7%) and Energy (6.0%) sectors have commenced a down-trend. This is in sharp contrast to the Financial (46.2% including REITs) and Health Care (5.2%) sectors which continue in a healthy up-trend. It is possible for the first two sectors, with a combined weighting of 21.7%, to reverse the broad index, but is not likely unless the contagion spreads to the Industrial and Financial sectors. Increased risk-weightings for home mortgages and stronger capital ratios for major banks are likely recommendations of the Murray inquiry. These will improve the long-term strength and growth prospects for Financials, but a negative reaction in the short-term could tip the sector into a down-trend.

ASX 200 sectorstitle=”S&P 500 Index” alt=”S&P 500 Index” src=”https://www.incrediblecharts.com/images/2014/2014-11-24-spx.png” />

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1800 ) = 2300

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9400/9500, signaling another test of 10000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow refllects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also headed for a test of its long-term high at 6900/6950. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6500 is unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is weaker, undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero. Penetration of primary support at 5120/5150, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

ASX 200 Materials (15.7%) and Energy (6.0%) sectors have commenced a down-trend. This is in sharp contrast to the Financial (46.2% including REITs) and Health Care (5.2%) sectors which continue in a healthy up-trend. It is possible for the first two sectors, with a combined weighting of 21.7%, to reverse the broad index, but is not likely unless the contagion spreads to the Industrial and Financial sectors. Increased risk-weightings for home mortgages and stronger capital ratios for major banks are likely recommendations of the Murray inquiry. These will improve the long-term strength and growth prospects for Financials, but a negative reaction in the short-term could tip the sector into a down-trend.

ASX 200 sectors

Posted on

Markets rebound except for ASX

  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX Energy and Materials sectors under pressure

The S&P 500 broke through the upper border of its broadening wedge formation, signaling a fresh advance with a target of 2300*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1800 ) = 2300

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9400/9500, signaling another test of 10000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow refllects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also headed for a test of its long-term high at 6900/6950. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6500 is unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is weaker, undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero. Penetration of primary support at 5120/5150, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

ASX 200 Materials (15.7%) and Energy (6.0%) sectors have commenced a down-trend. This is in sharp contrast to the Financial (46.2% including REITs) and Health Care (5.2%) sectors which continue in a healthy up-trend. It is possible for the first two sectors, with a combined weighting of 21.7%, to reverse the broad index, but is not likely unless the contagion spreads to the Industrial and Financial sectors. Increased risk-weightings for home mortgages and stronger capital ratios for major banks are likely recommendations of the Murray inquiry. These will improve the long-term strength and growth prospects for Financials, but a negative reaction in the short-term could tip the sector into a down-trend.

ASX 200 sectors

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A quiet week in the markets

  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX retraces to test support

The S&P 500 is testing the upper border of a broadening wedge formation. Retracement that respects support at 2000 would enhance the bull signal and offer a target of 2280*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buyers are in control. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2040 + ( 2040 – 1820 ) = 2280

Dow Jones Industrial Average has already broken above a similar broadening wedge formation, offering a long-term target of 19000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 16000 ) = 19000

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9400/9500, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak. Reversal of TMF below zero would warn of another correction. Reversal below 9000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Follow-through above 9500 is less likely, but would suggest another test of 10000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie proved more robust, breaking resistance, at 6500/6560 to signal a test of 6900. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is rising strongly, signaling buyers are in control.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling an advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below its rising trendline, however, would warn of (medium-term) selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 retraced to test support at 5440/5450. Respect would signal another test of the August high at 5650/5660. Failure of support would indicate a test of 5250/5300 and a weaker up-trend. Reversal below 5250 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal long-term buying pressure.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

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S&P 500 bullish but Europe and China encounter resistance

Retracement of the S&P 500 respected its new support level at 2000, confirming a primary advance with a target of 2150*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline indicates buyers are back in control. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX found resistance at 9400 and retracement to test support at 9000 is likely. Failure of the former primary support level at 8900/9000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also indicate that sellers dominate.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie also encountered resistance, at 6500/6560. Respect of this level would warn of a primary down-trend, but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2013 high of 2440. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of (medium-term) resistance.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also found resistance, at 24000. Reversal below 23000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Hang Seng Index

The ASX 200, influenced by both the US and China, is testing resistance at 5550. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 5650/5660. Reversal below 5380/5400 is less likely, but would warn that sellers have resumed control. I have lowered the target to 6000* because of constant back-filling in recent months.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

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DAX and Footsie weakness

Having signaled a primary down-trend with a break below 8900, Germany’s DAX recovered above 9000 to warn of a potential bear trap. After finding resistance at 9400, reversal below 8900 would confirm the down-trend, while follow-through above 9400 would suggest another test of 10000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero, but reversal (below) is likely and would indicate long-term selling pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie found resistance at 6550. Reversal below 6200 would confirm a primary down-trend, while follow-through above 6550 would indicate another test of 6900. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow largely above zero, however, suggests long-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6500 – ( 6900 – 6500 ) = 6100

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Europe: Selling pressure

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9000. Reversal below 8900 would suggest another decline with a target of 8000*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure; a peak below zero would confirm a primary down-trend. Recovery above 9000 is unlikely, but would suggest a rally to 9800.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie has also run into resistance, at 6400/6500. Respect would signal a decline to 6100*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but nowhere near as weak as the DAX.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6500 – ( 6900 – 6500 ) = 6100

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October sell-off: Drawing to a close?

  • DAX and FTSE find support, but remain in a down-trend
  • China is bullish, but Japan bearish
  • US stocks find support and continue to indicate a bull market
  • ASX respects primary support

The S&P 500 found support at 1820 and is testing resistance at 1900. Breach of resistance would suggest that the correction is over. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is more likely, indicating another test of support at 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to 22, indicating moderate risk, but nowhere near the 30+ levels typical of a bear market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above resistance (the former support level) at 16300, the long tail indicating short-term buying pressure. Follow-through above the descending trendline would signal that the correction is over. Recovery above the recent highs at 25% on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would suggest that buyers have regained control.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test resistance at 9000. Respect would confirm a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the bear signal. Target for the decline is 8000*. Recovery above 9000 remains unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie displays a similar long tail, indicating buying pressure. Recovery above 6500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap. Respect of resistance would offer a target of 6000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 – ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 6000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing support at 2340/2350. Breach would warn of a correction. But the primary up-trend remains and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals medium-term buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index plunged through support at 14800, warning of a test of primary support at 13900/14000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates (long-term) selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at 5250 and the descending trendline, suggesting that the correction is over. Bullish divergence and a rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Recovery above 5350 would confirm that buyers are back in control, while reversal below 5250 would indicate another test of 5000/5050.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5050

ASX 200 VIX remains below 20, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200 VIX

Posted on

October sell-off: Drawing to a close?

  • DAX and FTSE find support, but remain in a down-trend
  • China is bullish, but Japan bearish
  • US stocks find support and continue to indicate a bull market
  • ASX respects primary support

The S&P 500 found support at 1820 and is testing resistance at 1900. Breach of resistance would suggest that the correction is over. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is more likely, indicating another test of support at 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to 22, indicating moderate risk, but nowhere near the 30+ levels typical of a bear market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above resistance (the former support level) at 16300, the long tail indicating short-term buying pressure. Follow-through above the descending trendline would signal that the correction is over. Recovery above the recent highs at 25% on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would suggest that buyers have regained control.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test resistance at 9000. Respect would confirm a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the bear signal. Target for the decline is 8000*. Recovery above 9000 remains unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie displays a similar long tail, indicating buying pressure. Recovery above 6500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap. Respect of resistance would offer a target of 6000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 – ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 6000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing support at 2340/2350. Breach would warn of a correction. But the primary up-trend remains and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals medium-term buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index plunged through support at 14800, warning of a test of primary support at 13900/14000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates (long-term) selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at 5250 and the descending trendline, suggesting that the correction is over. Bullish divergence and a rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Recovery above 5350 would confirm that buyers are back in control, while reversal below 5250 would indicate another test of 5000/5050.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5050

ASX 200 VIX remains below 20, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200 VIX

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October sell-off continues

  • DAX and FTSE break support, signaling a down-trend
  • China is bullish, but rest of Asia is bearish
  • US stocks are correcting, but continue to indicate a bull market
  • ASX testing primary support

The quarter-end sell-off has been exacerbated by weakness in Europe.

Germany’s DAX broke primary support at 8900/9000, signaling a (primary) down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero strengthens the bear signal. Target for the decline is 8000*. Recovery above 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie displays similar weakness, breaching primary support at 6400/6500. Target for the decline is 6000*. Recovery above 6500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 – ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 6000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is holding above its new support at 2340/2350, but expect retracement to at least 2250 in response to US/European weakness.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke medium-term support at 15500 and the rising trendline to warn of a correction. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of 14800 would indicate a test of primary support at 14000.

Nikkei 225 Index

The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 1900. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below zero would indicate a down-trend, offering a target of 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to above 20, indicating moderate risk, but nowhere near the levels typical of a bear market.

S&P 500 VIX

The ASX 200 broke support at 5250/5300, suggesting a test of long-term support at 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure. Recovery above 5350 is unlikely, but would suggest that the correction is over.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5700 – 5350 ) = 5000

Posted on

October sell-off continues

  • DAX and FTSE break support, signaling a down-trend
  • China is bullish, but rest of Asia is bearish
  • US stocks are correcting, but continue to indicate a bull market
  • ASX testing primary support

The quarter-end sell-off has been exacerbated by weakness in Europe.

Germany’s DAX broke primary support at 8900/9000, signaling a (primary) down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero strengthens the bear signal. Target for the decline is 8000*. Recovery above 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie displays similar weakness, breaching primary support at 6400/6500. Target for the decline is 6000*. Recovery above 6500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 – ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 6000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is holding above its new support at 2340/2350, but expect retracement to at least 2250 in response to US/European weakness.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke medium-term support at 15500 and the rising trendline to warn of a correction. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of 14800 would indicate a test of primary support at 14000.

Nikkei 225 Index

The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 1900. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below zero would indicate a down-trend, offering a target of 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to above 20, indicating moderate risk, but nowhere near the levels typical of a bear market.

S&P 500 VIX

The ASX 200 broke support at 5250/5300, suggesting a test of long-term support at 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure. Recovery above 5350 is unlikely, but would suggest that the correction is over.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5700 – 5350 ) = 5000

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