The BSE Sensex is headed for a test of primary support at 16000/15800. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 14000*.
* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 − 16 ) = 14
Westpac’s monthly Fearful Symmetry chronicle on the Indian economy makes an interesting point:
“The reality is that while India is an internally focused and investment-led economy — thus producing a low-beta response to swings in global growth — the financing of investment, at the margin, must come from abroad, so it is highly vulnerable to downswings that incorporate or are driven by negative financial shocks. Put simply, in India a slowdown in the global economy is felt principally through the hardening of its external financing constraint. That is in contrast to the majority of its East Asian (surplus) neighbours, where global shocks are primarily transmitted via an export-led deceleration in aggregate demand, or its non-China BRIC peers, where swings in commodity prices are the key variable.”
Given that almost half of foreign bank funding is sourced from Europe, expect a significant tightening of external finance and hence domestic investment.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is headed for medium-term support at 2700. Failure of 2700 would indicate a test of primary support at 2500. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero warns of a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 − 2500 ) = 2100
