Liquidity is an immediate issue for the banking system, but the long term issue is solvency caused by the imbalances that have grown, and continue to grow, within the European economy. Deflationary policies that have been pushed onto the periphery are making that worse….
via Europe solves the wrong problem – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
David Weidner, Marketwatch: “Give me a swap line on currency and I will bet the farm….I am shocked that the market is rallying this much today on this news [European markets up about 10pc in dollar terms].”
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David Weidner interviewed by Evan Newmark of Mean Street.
Need a reason to explain the massive central bank intervention from China, to Japan, Switzerland, the ECB, England and all the way to the US? Forbes may have one explanation: “It appears that a big European bank got close to failure last night. European banks, especially French banks, rely heavily on funding in the wholesale money markets. It appears that a major bank was having difficulty funding its immediate liquidity needs. The cavalry was called in and has come to the successful rescue.”
via Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night? | ZeroHedge.
WASHINGTON — The world’s major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers about stresses in Europe and in the global financial system. The Fed, ECB and other central banks took coordinated action to support the global financial system as Europe’s rolling debt crisis continues to trouble markets. The coordinated action doesn’t directly address Europe’s government-debt and budget woes. Instead, it is aimed at alleviating the impact of those troubles on global markets. Moreover, it raises the prospect of other steps by central bankers to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.
Looks like something positive is brewing in Europe, but I don’t want to jump the gun. China looks weak, US probably through its worst, Europe still faces plenty of pain even if fiscal reform and euro-bonds introduced. Game changer would be QE/asset purchases by Fed and ECB.
In return for surrendering fiscal policy to Brussels, – Berlin and Paris, the key paymasters of the Euro-zone, would agree to the creation of a common Eurobond that would pool the credit ratings and collateral of all participating Euro-zone countries into a single fixed income instrument. Chancellor Merkel says that German borrowing costs will jump higher because of the creation of a Eurobond, though she is prepared to consider Eurobonds, if the legal framework is in place to ensure all countries in the zone observe the rules.
…..Once fiscal integration is agreed upon, Berlin is expected to agree to the creation of Eurobonds issued by member states that could be purchased in massive quantities (monetized) by the ECB. Countries would be liable for each others’ debts, but the ECB could make much of their debt disappear with its electronic printing press. Eurobonds would either be financed with higher taxes on the working class, through austerity measures, or through the inflationary effects of the ECB’s money printing machine. With French banks alone holding more of their debts than the entire €440-billion European Financial Stabilization Fund, a default by these countries would likely bankrupt the French financial system. Thus, Paris has been pushing hard for the ECB to monetize debt on a massive scale.
Germany should be bold and use its leverage to offer a new contract to its eurozone partners: mutual guarantee of part of their public debt in exchange for strict debt limits and a new legal order in which a eurozone authority can veto an enacted budget even before it is implemented. Only such boldness will deliver the certainty that markets need – and it is Germany’s responsibility to be bold.
via The German Hour – Jean Pisani-Ferry – Project Syndicate.
The OECD now forecasts the eurozone economy to be in a six-month recession lasting through the first quarter of 2012, followed by a slow recovery that will leave the 17-nation bloc with only 0.2 percent growth next year. Despite the OECD’s warning, European markets enjoyed one of their best sessions in weeks amid hopes that radical plans were being readied for the Dec. 9 meeting of EU leaders in Brussels. The Stoxx 50 of leading European shares ended 3.6 percent higher at 2,208.89.
The yield on a new three-year BTP soared to euro lifetime high of 7.89 percent at the closely watched auction which allowed Rome to raise 7.5 billion euros…..Only a month ago, Italy had paid a 4.93 yield to sell three-year paper.
via Italy 3-yr auction yield jumps to record 7.89 pct | Reuters.
BERLIN—Euro-zone countries are weighing a new plan to accelerate the integration of their fiscal policies, people familiar with the matter said, as Europe’s leaders race to convince investors they can resolve the region’s debt crisis and keep the currency area from fracturing.
Under the proposed plan, national governments would seal bilateral agreements that wouldn’t take as long as a cumbersome change to European Union treaties, according to people familiar with the matter. …. The EU treaty allows countries to engage in “enhanced cooperation” if at least nine countries agree, circumventing the need for a unanimous treaty change among all 27 EU members.
via Euro Zone Weighs Plan to Speed Fiscal Integration – WSJ.com.
