Tag: euro-zone

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Euro Zone – ‘Miserable’ Euro PMI Heightens Recession Risk: Economists – CNBC

The euro zone’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3 in October, its lowest level since July 2009, with German manufacturing falling for the first time in two years because of a combination of drops in output and new orders and backlogs of work.

The fall in euro zone PMI “reflected steep declines in both the manufacturing and services indices, suggesting that the deterioration in growth prospects reflects developments both at home and abroad,” Ben May, European economist at Capital Economist, wrote in a market note.

via Euro Zone – ‘Miserable’ Euro PMI Heightens Recession Risk: Economists – CNBC.

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Europe Leaders Debate Severe Options for Accord – WSJ.com

“For the first time, I found the leadership of the euro zone focusing on the fundamentals here in respect to the situation arising from Greece, and the fear of contagion,” said Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny. “There was clearly an understanding that the world is watching Europe and that there isn’t any point in doing this in a half-hearted fashion.”

The options being debated now are more severe and far-reaching than those under consideration in months past. Last year, when the crisis first threatened the euro zone’s stability, leaders insisted that Greece would not default and that assistance would only be provided to countries on the brink of collapse, and at punitive cost to discourage free-riders.

Now, the question is how big a default Greece will have, and leaders are scrambling to open floodgates of aid to several countries.

via Europe Leaders Debate Severe Options for Accord – WSJ.com.

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France appears to have conceded to German-ECB position on bailout fund | Credit Writedowns

France appears to have backed down in the face of a German-ECB joint position that strenuously objected to the EFSF becoming a bank to borrow from the ECB. Instead, it appears that the insurance/guarantee function of the EFSF is going to dominate. Although the situation still appears fluid, the momentum seems to favor those who want to have this guarantee function only for new issuance of Spain and Italy.

via France appears to have conceded to German-ECB position on bailout fund | Credit Writedowns.

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Crunch Time for Franco-German Relations – WSJ.com

…what euro-zone leaders appear to be inching toward is yet another fudge: a Greek deal that avoids default but still falls short of putting debt on a sustainable basis; a bank recapitalization that’s not sufficient to withstand multiple defaults and an expanded bailout fund that isn’t big enough to restore the confidence of sovereign and bank debt markets. That would send a worrying signal that the rift between Germany and France hasn’t been mended. And the longer they leave it, the wider it is sure to grow.

via Crunch Time for Franco-German Relations – WSJ.com.

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Europe’s highly-leveraged banking sector

Comparing common equity to total assets, 10 major European banks are leveraged more than 25 to 1 (a ratio of less than 4.0%).  According to The Big Picture, Dexia is the highest at close to 77 times, but the others are:

  • Deutsche Bank
  • Credit Agricole
  • Credit Suisse
  • Commerzbank
  • Barclays
  • ING
  • BNP Paribas
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS.

Using total equity may indicate slightly lower leverage but the results offer some idea as to why the  issue of recapitalizing banks is taking so long to resolve.

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Three Ways to Save the Eurozone – Jean Pisani-Ferry – Project Syndicate

The eurozone’s creeping fragmentation is primarily the result of the mutual dependence of banks and governments. In the eurozone, banks are vulnerable to sovereign-debt crises because they hold a lot of government bonds – frequently issued by their country of origin. Governments, for their part, are vulnerable to bank crises because they are individually responsible for rescuing national financial institutions. Each episode in the current crisis illustrates the fragility caused by this interdependence.

via Three Ways to Save the Eurozone – Jean Pisani-Ferry – Project Syndicate.

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Greece: Banks and Pols at Impasse

The debate over how to divide the costs of rescuing Greece is one of the central questions European officials hope to resolve at a weekend summit that comes almost two years to the day after a newly elected government in Athens admitted that the country’s finances were “off the rails.”

……On Wednesday evening, an unexpected gathering of top European officials and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde in Frankfurt failed to bridge a divide between Germany, which is footing much of Greek’s bill and supports larger private-sector losses, and France, which is more concerned about the impact of greater losses on its banks.

via Greece: Banks and Pols at Impasse.

My money is on Germany — and a bigger haircut for banks. Then the next headache is how to recapitalize the banks. The cause of the problem: Basel II allowed 50:1 leverage on government (including Greek) bonds.

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Draft Proposes Fast, Flexible Bailout Fund – WSJ.com

According to the draft guidelines, the EFSF would replace the European Central Bank in its role of intervening in sovereign-debt markets, but the EFSF’s scope for action would be more limited. The EFSF, for example, would only be allowed to purchase euro-denominated bonds in the open market that are issued by the public sector.

On primary market purchases—bonds bought directly from issuers—the EFSF purchases would be restricted to countries already receiving aid or precautionary credit and be limited to 50% of the total auction. Purchases of sovereign bonds in primary markets would require prior approval of European finance ministers.

The guidelines also…….. allows the fund to engage in limited leveraging of its assets.

via Draft Proposes Fast, Flexible Bailout Fund – WSJ.com.

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And Now The Bundestag Demands A Say | ZeroHedge

According to FAZ, the German parliament, which made it all too clear wants to be heard in all future European bailout instances courtesy of the constitutional court decision in early September, has just announced it wants to be heard, this time for real, and decide, on any EFSF expansion facility and specifically the usage of more leverage to fight already unbearable systemic leverage.

via And Now The Bundestag Demands A Say | ZeroHedge.

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Sarkozy says euro zone talks stuck, flies to Germany | Top News | Reuters

France has argued the most effective way of leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility is to turn it into a bank which could then access funding from the ECB, but both the central bank and the German government have opposed this.

“In Germany, the coalition is divided on this issue. It is not just Angela Merkel who we need to convince,” [French President Nicolas Sarkozy] told the parliamentarians at a lunch meeting, according to Charles de Courson, one of the legislators present.

His comments fueled doubts about whether euro zone leaders will be able to agree a clear and convincing plan when they meet on Sunday.

via Sarkozy says euro zone talks stuck, flies to Germany | Top News | Reuters.

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