Chaos in Eastern Ukraine rebel government

From Christian Neef at Der Spiegel:

….the disputes between leaders in Donetsk and Lugansk are growing — a development Moscow views with dismay. Their citizen militias are disintegrating into different groups that are each pursuing different agendas. Some are refusing to recognize the leaders of the People’s Republics and others don’t want to accept the terms of the Minsk Protocol. One of the biggest problems is the Cossacks, who control 80 percent of the Lugansk region and have now proclaimed their own state, the Lugansk Democratic Republic. The situation in Lugansk itself is especially complicated given that the city is partly under the control of criminal gangs.

Resistance is even stirring in Donetsk. Three weeks ago, a party calling itself “New Russia” held a protest in the city center and pilloried leaders of the separatist republic for agreements they had made with Kiev. Speakers at the demonstration said the cease-fire must be ended immediately and that attacks against Ukrainian positions should resume. A short time later, assailants perpetrated an assassination attempt against New Russia’s leader, who as recently as this spring had been the “people’s governor” of Donetsk….

Read more at The Chaos Republics: The Real Test for Rebels Will Come in Winter – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

Falling crude prices are good news

Crude oil prices are falling sharply. Nymex Light Crude broke support at $98/barrel and Brent Crude is testing support at $104. Breach of that support level would confirm a primary down-trend.

Nymex WTI Crude

The theory has been bandied about that lower crude prices are a Barack Obama strategy to deter Vladimir Putin in East Ukraine. But there are signs of an economic slow-down in Europe, especially Italy, that would hurt demand for Brent Crude. And the Baltic Dry Index, which reflects bulk commodity shipping rates, indicates global trade is at a low ebb. Whichever is correct, low crude prices are welcome — good for the medium-term outlook of the global economy.

Baltic Dry Index