Retail sales growth (excluding motor vehicles and parts) slowed to 2.4% over the 12 months to June 2017.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
Seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales are also slowing.
Source: St Louis Fed & BEA
Seasonally adjusted private housing starts and new building permits are starting to lose momentum.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
The good news is that Manufacturer’s Durable Goods Orders (seasonally adjusted and ex Defense & Aircraft) are recovering.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
Cement and concrete production continues to trend upwards.
Source: US Fed
And estimated weekly hours worked (total nonfarm payroll * average weekly hours) is growing steadily.
Source: St Louis Fed & BLS
All of which suggest that business confidence is growing and consumer confidence is likely to follow. Bellwether transport stock Fedex advanced to 220, signaling rising economic activity in the broader economy.
Target: 180 + ( 180 – 120 ) = 240
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 2450, making a new high. Narrow consolidations and shallow corrections all signal investor confidence typical of the latter stages of a bull market. The immediate target is 2500* but further gains are likely.
Target: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500
The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.
~ Warren Buffett