Tag: Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index

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Gold tests key support as the dollar rises

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes rallied off support at 2.50 percent. Follow-through above 2.75 would indicate a fresh primary advance, with a target of 3.50 percent*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 2.50.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 3.50

Dollar Index

Rising interest rates would strengthen the dollar. The Dollar Index respected support at 79, suggesting a rally to resistance at 84. Breach of the rising trendline, however, still warns of trend weakness, and 13-week Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) would strengthen the warning.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74

Gold

Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar would weaken gold. Spot gold is testing primary support at $1250/ounce. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend; breach of $1250 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through below the June low of $1200 would confirm. Respect of support at $1250 is less likely, but would indicate another test of $1350.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1250 – ( 1350 – 1250 ) = 1150

Silver is similarly testing support at $20.50/ounce. Breach would signal a decline to $18/ounce. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Nymex crude is undergoing a strong correction. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum crossing to below zero warns of reversal to a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $86/barrel would confirm. Until then, however, Nymex remains in a primary up-trend. Diverging Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China is a primary driver of commodity prices and a weakening Shanghai Composite Index is driving commodity prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index broke primary support at 124, offering a target of 114*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero also suggests a continuing down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 124 – ( 134 – 124 ) = 114

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Dollar bear trap?

The Dollar Index found support at 80. Recovery above 81 would suggest a bear trap. A peak close to zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, indicates a primary down-trend. Reversal below 80 would confirm the long-term target of 76.50*.

A falling dollar would boost gold prices.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80.5 – ( 84.5 – 80.5 ) = 76.5

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes threatens recovery above 2.70 percent, which would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support at 2.60 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 2.40 percent.

Rising treasury yields would lift the dollar, while raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and exerting downward pressure on gold.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40

Gold

Spot gold continues its correction toward primary support at $1200. Follow-through below $1250 would confirm, while recovery above $1300 would suggest a higher trough and primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaking below zero, however, would indicate continuation of the down-trend.

Spot Gold

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude is edging lower and likely to test medium-term support at $98/barrel. Brent crude is diverging, reflecting continuing tensions over Syria.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Downward breakout would warn of another correction — a bearish sign for commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index shows evidence of a higher trough, however, and recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum also suggests a reversal.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Commodity prices: bullish divergence

Commodity prices continue to display weakness, with a tall shadow on the latest Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index weekly candle. But the Shanghai Composite Index is strengthening and bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a reversal. Recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend.

Rising commodity prices would be good news for resources stocks.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Gold

Spot gold respected the declining trendline. Breach of short-term support at $1280 per ounce would indicate another test of primary support at $1200. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum (not shown) peak below zero would be a strong bear signal. Respect of support, followed by recovery above the recent high of $1330 is unlikely but would complete a small double-bottom, indicating the correction is over.

Spot Gold

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude followed through below $102/barrel after breaking support at $103, confirming a test of medium-term support at $98/barrel. The wider spread with Brent Crude reflects continuing tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is consolidating below its new resistance level of 80.50. Follow-through below 80 would confirm the primary down-trend. The 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also signals a down-trend. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

A falling dollar would boost gold prices.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is consolidating between 2.60 and 2.70 percent. Recovery above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support, however, would warn of a test of 2.40 percent.

Rising treasury yields would raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting downward pressure on prices.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40

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Dollar and Treasuries likely to lift Gold

Spot gold continues to test support at $1300/ounce. Failure of support would visit the primary level at $1200/ounce, while respect would test $1440. Breach of the downward trend channel indicates the primary trend is slowing, but recovery above $1440, and a primary up-trend, seem some way off — as does recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Spot Gold

The two-hourly chart shows breakout above resistance at $1330. Retracement that respects the new support level would signal a rally to test $1375, improving the chances of a bottom.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index broke primary support at 80.50, warning of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 80 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also suggests a down-trend. A falling dollar would boost gold prices. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.70 percent, warning of another test of 2.40 percent. Penetration of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Falling treasury yields are also likely to lift precious metal prices (because of the lower opportunity cost).

10-Year Treasury Yields

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude broke support at $103/barrel and its rising trendline, warning that the up-trend is slowing. A test of medium-term support at $98/barrel is now likely. The wider spread with Brent Crude is an indication of tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodities

Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index headed for another test of 124 despite a resilient Shanghai Composite Index. Recovery above 130 is unlikely, but would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Gold hesitates as the Dollar strengthens

Spot gold is testing support at $1380/ounce. Breach would indicate a test of the rising trendline and support at $1350. Penetration of the trendline would warn that the rally is slowing and another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. But respect of the trendline remains as likely, and would offer a target of $1500*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1350 ) = 1500

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index encountered resistance at 82.50. Narrow consolidation or a short retracement would suggest a breakout — and another test of the July high at 84.75. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero favors this, but respect of resistance would again test primary support at 80.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude retreated below its new support level at $108/barrel, suggesting a test of the rising trendline and support at $103. Brent crude, however is advancing on the back of rising Middle East tensions and falling Libyan production. Expect resistance at the 2013 high of $118/119. Breach of the rising trendline is most unlikely for both Nymex and Brent — expect the up-trend to continue.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

The Shanghai Composite Index [green line] continues its gentle rise, helping to support commodity prices. But tall shadows on the last two candles indicate selling pressure on Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. Reversal below 130 would warn of another test of primary support at 124/125.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Commodities rise as the Dollar falls

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend and breach of support at 80.50 would confirm. Respect of support and recovery above 82, however, would indicate an up-swing to 84.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude broke resistance at $108/barrel, as the Syrian conflict threatens to escalate. Expect an advance to $118/barrel*. Reversal below $108 is most unlikely, but would signal another test of the rising trendline. Brent crude similarly broke through $110, offering a target of $120.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

Copper is headed for a test of $7500/tonne. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of long-term support at $6600/$6800. Upward breakout and penetration of the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is ending, while breach of support at $6600 would signal continuation. Momentum oscillating mainly below zero still favors a down-trend.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
The Shanghai Composite Index bear rally continues, causing a lift in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index completed a double-bottom reversal, with breakout above 130, offering a target of 135*. Penetration of the descending trendline also suggests the primary down-trend has ended.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Be cautious, however, as the Shanghai Composite faces resistance at 2150. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 1950 is breached.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

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Gold tests $1350, Crude bullish

Gold found support at $1270/ounce before rallying to test $1350. Breakout would offer a target of $1430*, but reversal below $1270 is as likely and would signal a re-test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1270 ) = 1430

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Dollar Index

The Dollar Index remains in a downward trend channel, headed for a test of primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of selling pressure. Respect of the upper channel would warn of a down-swing to 80.50. Upward breakout is less likely, but would suggest the correction is ending. Follow-through above 82.50 would strengthen the signal.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude is consolidating below resistance at $108/barrel, while Brent crude consolidates below $110. Upward breakout is likely and would signal an advance to $118* and $120 respectively.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

Copper respected support at $6600/ton and is rallying to test $7500 and the descending trendline. Upward breakout would suggest that a bottom is forming, while respect would warn of another test of $6600. Momentum oscillating below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of support at $6600 would confirm.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
A bear rally on Shanghai Composite Index [lime green] caused a lift in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index recovered above long-term support at 126, suggesting a rally to 130. Breakout is unlikely, but would offer a target of 136*. The primary trend is down and reversal below 124 would suggest a long-term decline to the 2009 low at 100*.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100; 130 + ( 130 – 124 ) = 136

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Gold and commodities falling while Dollar weakens

Gold is drifting lower after breaking support at $1300/ounce. Penetration of support at $1270 would signal a re-test of primary support at $1200, but reversal above $1300 remains as likely and would indicate another test of $1350. Breakout above $1350 would target $1400.

Spot Gold

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The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, continues its sharp fall. Follow-through below 200 would indicate a test of the 2008 low at 160 — a bearish sign for the spot metal.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is heading for a test of primary support at 80.50. Respect of the rising trendline would be a bullish sign, but bearish divergence (and reversal below zero) on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of weakness. Breach of 80.50 would signal a primary down-trend.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude twice respected resistance at $108/barrel. Reversal below last week’s low at $103 would warn of a test of $98, while respect would suggest another strong advance. Brent crude is likely to track its US counterpart closely.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

Copper is testing long-term support at $6800/ton. Follow-through below $6600 would confirm another primary decline.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
The Shanghai Composite Index is holding above its 2012 low  at 1950, but further weakness is likely and would drive commodity prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index breached long-term support at 125/126, offering a target of the 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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Gold consolidates as dollar and commodities fall

Gold is consolidating in a narrow range between $1300 and $1350/ounce. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200, but breakout above $1350 is as likely and would target $1400.

Spot Gold

A rally to $1400 would test the long-term descending trendline as shown on the monthly chart.

Spot Gold

Spot silver has made a weaker rally over the last month and breakout below the rising flag would warn of another decline, with a target of $16.50*. Declining silver would be a bearish sign for gold.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 19.5 – ( 21.5 – 18.5 ) = 16.5

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index found short-term support at 81.50. Penetration would indicate a test of primary support at 80.50. Recovery above 82.50 is unlikely, but would suggest the correction is over. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above 84.50 is some way off, but would signal an advance to the 2009/2010 highs around 90.00.
Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude is retracing after a sharp rally and is likely to find support between $98 and $100/barrel. Expect the spread with Brent crude to narrow as the US recovery outstrips Europe.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

Copper is testing long-term support at $6800/ton. Follow-through below $6700 would confirm another primary decline.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
Commodity prices are primarily driven by Chinese demand. With the Shanghai Composite Index testing its 2012 low (1950), breakout would signal a decline to its 2008 low (1660) and drag commodity prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index breach of long-term support at 125/126 would confirm, targeting its 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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Gold rises as the dollar falls

Gold broke resistance at $1300/ounce, penetration of the descending trendline indicating that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200. Respect of support at $1300 and breakout above $1350 is unlikely, but would target $1400.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is headed for a test of the rising trendline after a false break above 84.00. Respect of the trendline would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, while reversal below 80.50 would warn of a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates trend weakness. Recovery above 84.50, however, would signal an advance to 90.00*.
Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude is in a primary up-trend, with the current retracement likely to find support around $100/barrel. Rising Nymex crude prices reflect a stronger US economy. Expect the spread with Brent crude to narrow. Target for the current Nymex advance is the 2012 high of $110/barrel*

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate above its 2012 low (of 1950). Failure would signal a decline to its 2008 low (at 1660). China is the primary driver of commodity prices and decline of the Shanghai Index would drag prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index reversal below long-term support at 126 would confirm, targeting the 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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