Tag: DAX

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DAX threatens bear trend

Germany’s DAX is retracing for another test of support at 9300 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow retreat below zero, after a bearish divergence, warns of long-term selling pressure. Failure of support would warn of a primary down-trend, while breach of primary support at 9000/8900 would confirm. Respect of support is unlikely, but recovery above 9800 would suggest another advance.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also likely to test primary support at 6400/6500. Divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, is nowhere near as bearish as the DAX and stronger support is likely.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6500 – ( 6900 – 6500 ) = 6100

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Europe finds resistance

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9800. Breakout would signal another advance, while follow-through above 10000 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow followed by a dip below zero, however, warns of long-term selling pressure. Reversal below 9600 would warn of another test of primary support at 9000/8900.

DAX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing resistance at its recent high of 3300. Breakout would suggest an advance to 3600*, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum (and Twiggs Money Flow) warns that sellers dominate. Reversal below 3200 would indicate another test of primary support at 2975/3000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The Footsie is testing medium-term support at 6750. Breach would warn of another test of primary support at 6400/6500. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero, however, continues to warn of long-term buying pressure. Breakout above long-term resistance at 6900 would signal a primary advance.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

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DAX and Footsie show resilience

Germany’s DAX is retracing in a flag pattern after several weeks of healthy advance. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Continuation is likely and breach of resistance at 9800 would indicate another test of 10000. Reversal below 9300 is unlikely.

DAX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 retreated from its recent high of 3300. Respect of 3200, however, would suggest an advance to 3600*; confirmed if the index breaks above 3300. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate medium-term buying pressure, while reversal below zero would be bearish.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

Long tails on the Footsie indicate support at 6800. A “no” vote in the Scottish independence referendum may precipitate another test of long-term resistance 6900, while a “yes” outcome would most likely cause a correction. But any losses are likely to be short-lived as any negotiations settle into a long, drawn-out process.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

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European resistance

Germany’s DAX found resistance at 9700/9800. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates short-term buying pressure, but the long-term signal remains bearish. Reversal below 9300 would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing resistance at the recent high of 3300. But declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow again warns of long-term selling pressure. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely but would suggest another advance, while reversal below 3200 — or Twiggs Money Flow below zero — would warn of another correction.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The Footsie appears unfazed by threats of Scottish independence, testing long-term resistance at 6850/6900. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate healthy buying pressure, but there is a major psychological barrier at the 1999 high of 6900/7000. Narrow consolidation below this level would be a bullish sign, while a correction to test primary support at 6500 would suggest further hesitancy.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

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European ceasefire

Neil MacFarquhar reports in The New York Times:

After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox…..

The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.

It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television….

There appears plenty of skepticism as to whether the ceasefire will hold… and whether Russian forces will withdraw, but markets welcomed the announcement.

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9700/9800. Breakout would indicate a fresh advance, while follow-through above 10000 would confirm a target of 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero suggests selling pressure is easing. Retreat below 9250, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The S&P 500 rallied above 2000. Follow-through above 2010 would confirm an advance to 2100*. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggests further consolidation. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, broke resistance at 2250 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2500*. Reversal below 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 broke short-term support at 5620, but with both US and Chinese markets entering a bull phase retracement is likely to be short-lived. Breakout above 5680 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

Posted on

European ceasefire

Neil MacFarquhar reports in The New York Times:

After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox…..

The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.

It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television….

There appears plenty of skepticism as to whether the ceasefire will hold… and whether Russian forces will withdraw, but markets welcomed the announcement.

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9700/9800. Breakout would indicate a fresh advance, while follow-through above 10000 would confirm a target of 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero suggests selling pressure is easing. Retreat below 9250, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The S&P 500 rallied above 2000. Follow-through above 2010 would confirm an advance to 2100*. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggests further consolidation. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, broke resistance at 2250 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2500*. Reversal below 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 broke short-term support at 5620, but with both US and Chinese markets entering a bull phase retracement is likely to be short-lived. Breakout above 5680 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

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Footsie resilient while Euro, DAX falter

The Euro is in a primary down-trend, having broken support at $1.35. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) confirms. Expect short-term support at $1.31 on the weekly chart, with long-term support at $1.27/$1.28.

Euro

Germany’s DAX encountered resistance below 9700/9800 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 9300 would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 found similar resistance at 3200. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would indicate buying pressure, while a fall below zero would warn that sellers dominate. Reversal below 3100 would warn of another test of primary support at 3000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The Footsie shows more resilience, testing long-term resistance at 6850/6900. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates long-term buying pressure, but there is a major psychological barrier at 6900/7000 (the 1999 high) that has to be overcome. Breach of support at 6500 is unlikely, but would warn of a reversal.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

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War in Europe

Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and up to 15,000 Russian troops. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. Each weak response has only made Putin bolder. But where he may miscalculate is that the coalition is aware that its “stick-and-carrot” policy has failed and will be looking for a new approach.

Willingness of the Europeans to endure immediate economic pain in the belief that this will avert a long-term calamity is yet to be tested. Success will depend on France, Spain and Italy’s support for their Northern and Central European neighbours, who face a more immediate threat.

A significant step-up in sanctions is likely and the initial response from European markets will be negative. Sanctions are a two-edged sword and likely to hurt Europe almost as much as they do Russia. But NATO rearmament in the medium-term would somewhat offset the initial cost. Never underestimate the stimulus effect of war on local industry — provided the war is fought outside one’s borders

Germany’s DAX is running into stiff resistance as it approaches 9750. And 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure, threatening a reversal. Retreat below 9250 would strengthen the signal and failure of support at 8900/9000 would confirm a primary down-trend.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 reversal below 3100 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would add further weight to the (bear) signal.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 2700

The S&P 500, unfazed by recent developments in Europe, broke resistance at 2000 to signal an advance to 2100*. A 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates rising (medium-term) buying pressure. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), shown here on a ten-year chart, indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, is testing resistance at 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend, signaling an advance to 2500*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would suggest further consolidation.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5650. Continued strength in US and Chinese stocks would improve the chance of an ASX 200 breakout, suggesting an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — shown here on a monthly chart — continues to warn of long-term selling pressure. But failure to cross below zero would negate this and completion of another trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

Posted on

War in Europe

Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and up to 15,000 Russian troops. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. Each weak response has only made Putin bolder. But where he may miscalculate is that the coalition is aware that its “stick-and-carrot” policy has failed and will be looking for a new approach.

Willingness of the Europeans to endure immediate economic pain in the belief that this will avert a long-term calamity is yet to be tested. Success will depend on France, Spain and Italy’s support for their Northern and Central European neighbours, who face a more immediate threat.

A significant step-up in sanctions is likely and the initial response from European markets will be negative. Sanctions are a two-edged sword and likely to hurt Europe almost as much as they do Russia. But NATO rearmament in the medium-term would somewhat offset the initial cost. Never underestimate the stimulus effect of war on local industry — provided the war is fought outside one’s borders

Germany’s DAX is running into stiff resistance as it approaches 9750. And 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure, threatening a reversal. Retreat below 9250 would strengthen the signal and failure of support at 8900/9000 would confirm a primary down-trend.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 reversal below 3100 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would add further weight to the (bear) signal.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 2700

The S&P 500, unfazed by recent developments in Europe, broke resistance at 2000 to signal an advance to 2100*. A 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates rising (medium-term) buying pressure. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), shown here on a ten-year chart, indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, is testing resistance at 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend, signaling an advance to 2500*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would suggest further consolidation.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5650. Continued strength in US and Chinese stocks would improve the chance of an ASX 200 breakout, suggesting an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — shown here on a monthly chart — continues to warn of long-term selling pressure. But failure to cross below zero would negate this and completion of another trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

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DAX surges

Germany’s DAX surged after a brief test of support at 9250/9300. Recovery of 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. A trough above the zero line would reflect medium-term buying pressure. Expect resistance at 9700/9800.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9750 + ( 9750 – 9000 ) = 10500

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 also surged, indicating a test of 3250 on the weekly chart. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 3100 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 3000 ) = 3300

The Footsie faces strong resistance between 6750 and 7000, as illustrated on the quarterly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates a healthy up-trend, but this is a major psychological barrier to overcome. Breach of support at 6400/6500 is unlikely, but would warn of a reversal.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 700 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

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