Forex: Dollar falls sharply against Euro, Aussie, Loonie and Yen

The dollar fell sharply against the Euro and Sterling. The Euro jumped from primary support at $1.28 to medium-term resistance at $1.32. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance is just as likely.


* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling is weakening against the euro, breach of medium-term support at €1.16 suggesting a test of primary support at €1.1350 on the weekly chart. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate a strong primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Pound Sterling

The greenback retreated below support at ¥100 against the Yen. Recovery above ¥100 would indicate continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Respect of the new resistance level, however, remains as likely and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.


* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.9850 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn that all bets are off and another test of  support at $0.9450 is likely. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar penetrated its secondary descending trendline, suggesting a rally to test the primary trendline at $0.96. But first we need a break of resistance at $0.93, while follow-through above $0.94 would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance, however, would warn of another test of immediate support at $0.90, while the long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA is not averse to this: they need a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80