Tag: Brent crude

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Dollar and Treasuries likely to lift Gold

Spot gold continues to test support at $1300/ounce. Failure of support would visit the primary level at $1200/ounce, while respect would test $1440. Breach of the downward trend channel indicates the primary trend is slowing, but recovery above $1440, and a primary up-trend, seem some way off — as does recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Spot Gold

The two-hourly chart shows breakout above resistance at $1330. Retracement that respects the new support level would signal a rally to test $1375, improving the chances of a bottom.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index broke primary support at 80.50, warning of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 80 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also suggests a down-trend. A falling dollar would boost gold prices. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.70 percent, warning of another test of 2.40 percent. Penetration of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Falling treasury yields are also likely to lift precious metal prices (because of the lower opportunity cost).

10-Year Treasury Yields

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude broke support at $103/barrel and its rising trendline, warning that the up-trend is slowing. A test of medium-term support at $98/barrel is now likely. The wider spread with Brent Crude is an indication of tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodities

Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index headed for another test of 124 despite a resilient Shanghai Composite Index. Recovery above 130 is unlikely, but would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Gold eases as bond yields rise

Spot gold encountered short-term support at $1300/ounce, but the correction is far from over. A rally would be likely to encounter resistance at $1350, while failure would test $1275. Respect of $1275 would be bullish, but the primary trend is downward and another test of support at $1200 remains likely. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, while below zero, strengthens the signal.

Spot Gold

Rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, driving gold prices down. The yield on ten-year notes is testing support at 2.70 percent, but respect is likely, offering a medium-term target of 3.30 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.70 ) = 3.30

Crude Oil

Nymex and Brent crude are easing as prospect of US intervention in Syria fades. Breach of support at $103/barrel — and the rising trendline — is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at $98/barrel.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

A retreating Shanghai Composite Index followed commodity prices lower, with another test of primary support at 124 by Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index more likely. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to indicate a (primary) down-trend and another peak below the line would strengthen the signal. Recovery above 130, however, would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Gold tests key support at $1350/ounce

Spot gold is testing its rising trendline and support at $1350. Breach of support would warn that another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. Respect of the trendline, however, remains as likely and would offer a target of $1500*. Breakout above the standard deviation trend channel suggests that a bottom is forming and, although we may see another test of $1200 before this is over, primary support is likely to hold.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1350 ) = 1500

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is retreating for another test of primary support at 80.50, lifting gold and commodities. Breach of the long-term rising trendline would suggest that the primary up-trend is weakening, while failure of support would signal a reversal. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero also favors a down-trend; reversal below recent lows at -2% would strengthen the signal.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex and Brent crude are retreating on easing of tensions over Syria, but are unlikely to break support at $103/barrel and the rising trendline.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

A rising Shanghai Composite Index is likely to lift commodity prices. Recovery above 130 on Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index would be likely to test 135. Follow-through below the present 129, however, would test primary support at 124/125. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would also indicate continuation of the primary down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Gold hesitates as the Dollar strengthens

Spot gold is testing support at $1380/ounce. Breach would indicate a test of the rising trendline and support at $1350. Penetration of the trendline would warn that the rally is slowing and another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. But respect of the trendline remains as likely, and would offer a target of $1500*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1350 ) = 1500

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index encountered resistance at 82.50. Narrow consolidation or a short retracement would suggest a breakout — and another test of the July high at 84.75. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero favors this, but respect of resistance would again test primary support at 80.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude retreated below its new support level at $108/barrel, suggesting a test of the rising trendline and support at $103. Brent crude, however is advancing on the back of rising Middle East tensions and falling Libyan production. Expect resistance at the 2013 high of $118/119. Breach of the rising trendline is most unlikely for both Nymex and Brent — expect the up-trend to continue.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

The Shanghai Composite Index [green line] continues its gentle rise, helping to support commodity prices. But tall shadows on the last two candles indicate selling pressure on Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. Reversal below 130 would warn of another test of primary support at 124/125.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Commodities rise as the Dollar falls

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend and breach of support at 80.50 would confirm. Respect of support and recovery above 82, however, would indicate an up-swing to 84.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude broke resistance at $108/barrel, as the Syrian conflict threatens to escalate. Expect an advance to $118/barrel*. Reversal below $108 is most unlikely, but would signal another test of the rising trendline. Brent crude similarly broke through $110, offering a target of $120.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

Copper is headed for a test of $7500/tonne. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of long-term support at $6600/$6800. Upward breakout and penetration of the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is ending, while breach of support at $6600 would signal continuation. Momentum oscillating mainly below zero still favors a down-trend.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
The Shanghai Composite Index bear rally continues, causing a lift in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index completed a double-bottom reversal, with breakout above 130, offering a target of 135*. Penetration of the descending trendline also suggests the primary down-trend has ended.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Be cautious, however, as the Shanghai Composite faces resistance at 2150. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 1950 is breached.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

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Gold tests $1350, Crude bullish

Gold found support at $1270/ounce before rallying to test $1350. Breakout would offer a target of $1430*, but reversal below $1270 is as likely and would signal a re-test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1270 ) = 1430

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Dollar Index

The Dollar Index remains in a downward trend channel, headed for a test of primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of selling pressure. Respect of the upper channel would warn of a down-swing to 80.50. Upward breakout is less likely, but would suggest the correction is ending. Follow-through above 82.50 would strengthen the signal.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude is consolidating below resistance at $108/barrel, while Brent crude consolidates below $110. Upward breakout is likely and would signal an advance to $118* and $120 respectively.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

Copper respected support at $6600/ton and is rallying to test $7500 and the descending trendline. Upward breakout would suggest that a bottom is forming, while respect would warn of another test of $6600. Momentum oscillating below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of support at $6600 would confirm.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
A bear rally on Shanghai Composite Index [lime green] caused a lift in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index recovered above long-term support at 126, suggesting a rally to 130. Breakout is unlikely, but would offer a target of 136*. The primary trend is down and reversal below 124 would suggest a long-term decline to the 2009 low at 100*.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100; 130 + ( 130 – 124 ) = 136

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Gold and commodities falling while Dollar weakens

Gold is drifting lower after breaking support at $1300/ounce. Penetration of support at $1270 would signal a re-test of primary support at $1200, but reversal above $1300 remains as likely and would indicate another test of $1350. Breakout above $1350 would target $1400.

Spot Gold

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The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, continues its sharp fall. Follow-through below 200 would indicate a test of the 2008 low at 160 — a bearish sign for the spot metal.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is heading for a test of primary support at 80.50. Respect of the rising trendline would be a bullish sign, but bearish divergence (and reversal below zero) on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of weakness. Breach of 80.50 would signal a primary down-trend.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude twice respected resistance at $108/barrel. Reversal below last week’s low at $103 would warn of a test of $98, while respect would suggest another strong advance. Brent crude is likely to track its US counterpart closely.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

Copper is testing long-term support at $6800/ton. Follow-through below $6600 would confirm another primary decline.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
The Shanghai Composite Index is holding above its 2012 low  at 1950, but further weakness is likely and would drive commodity prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index breached long-term support at 125/126, offering a target of the 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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Gold rises as the dollar falls

Gold broke resistance at $1300/ounce, penetration of the descending trendline indicating that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200. Respect of support at $1300 and breakout above $1350 is unlikely, but would target $1400.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is headed for a test of the rising trendline after a false break above 84.00. Respect of the trendline would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, while reversal below 80.50 would warn of a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates trend weakness. Recovery above 84.50, however, would signal an advance to 90.00*.
Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude is in a primary up-trend, with the current retracement likely to find support around $100/barrel. Rising Nymex crude prices reflect a stronger US economy. Expect the spread with Brent crude to narrow. Target for the current Nymex advance is the 2012 high of $110/barrel*

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate above its 2012 low (of 1950). Failure would signal a decline to its 2008 low (at 1660). China is the primary driver of commodity prices and decline of the Shanghai Index would drag prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index reversal below long-term support at 126 would confirm, targeting the 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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Crude rallies while gold and commodities stall

Gold is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $1300 — a bullish sign. Upward breakout would penetrate the descending trendline, suggesting a bottom is forming.  Reversal below $1270, however, would indicate another test of $1200. Failure of support at $1200 would offer a medium-term target of $1100*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1100

The monthly chart shows a primary trendline some way above current price action. Even a rally to $1400 would not disrupt the primary down-trend.
Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index retreated after a false break above 84.00. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, while reversal below 79.00 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 84.50 would signal an advance to 89.00.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude is in a clear primary up-trend, with Brent crude lifting in sympathy. Rising Nymex crude prices reflect a stronger US economy. Target for the Nymex advance is the 2012 high of $110/barrel*. Expect the spread with Brent crude to narrow.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded weakly above long-term support at 1950, but is likely to re-test in the next few weeks. Failure would indicate a decline to test the 2008 low at 1400. China is the primary driver of commodity prices and another decline on the Shanghai Index would drag prices even lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index reversal below long-term support at 125 would confirm, targeting the 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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Gold lifts on Dollar’s sharp fall

Gold broke medium-term resistance at $1260 as the Dollar Index fell sharply. Expect strong resistance between $1300 and 1340, however, and respect of the descending trendline would indicate another test of $1200. Continuation of the down-trend is likely, and failure of support at $1200 would offer a medium-term target of $1100*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1100

Dollar Index

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday as investors , hoping for greater clarity, received mixed (if not confusing) signals. Nicole Hong at WSJ writes:

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a conference that the central bank’s highly monetary policy [QE] is needed for the foreseeable future. He added that it is likely the Fed won’t raise interest rates “for some time,” even after the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.

His remarks came after the release of minutes from the Fed’s June meeting earlier Wednesday. The minutes showed Fed officials divided about the timing of a reduction in bond buying, with half of Fed officials believing the central bank should end the stimulus program by the end of this year. Other Fed officials said the labor market hasn’t improved enough to begin tapering so soon.

The Dollar Index fell sharply, signaling another test of primary support at 80.50. Breach of support — or reversal of Twiggs Momentum (63-day or 13-week) below zero — would warn of a primary down-trend.  While that is unlikely, failure to break resistance at 84.50 suggests a weak up-trend.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude followed through above $100/barrel, signaling a primary up-trend, while Brent crude recovered above $106/barrel. The spread has narrowed to less than $2/barrel. Rising Nymex crude prices reflect a stronger US economy. Target for the advance is the 2012 high of $110/barrel*.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 98 + ( 98 – 86 ) = 110

Commodities

Commodity prices are largely driven by China. Narrow consolidation of the Shanghai Composite index above long-term support at 1950 suggests a decline to test the 2008 low at 1700. That would drag commodities even lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index similarly recovered above long-term support at 125 and is likely to test 130, but  reversal below support would target the 2009 low at 100*. Not good news for Australian resources stocks, even if the impact is cushioned by a falling Aussie Dollar.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 125 – ( 150 – 125 ) = 100

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