Brent crude Archives - Page 16 of 16 - the patient investor %

October 20, 2011

Commodities long-term trend

Brent crude is edging lower in a wide trend channel. Respect of the long-term ascending trendline (on the weekly chart) would suggest upward breakout from the channel — and a target of $150/barrel*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The CRB Commodities index is similarly testing its long-term rising trendline at 300. Penetration of the secondary descending trendline would indicate another primary advance on the monthly chart. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero [R], however, warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 290 would strengthen the signal.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 370 +( 370 – 290 ) = 450

October 13, 2011

Crude and commodities rally

Brent Crude rallied off support at $99/$100 per barrel, headed for a test of the upper trend channel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above its descending trendline warns that the down-trend is weakening. Breakout above the upper channel would test the 2011 high of $125/barrel.

Brent Crude

CRB Commodities Index similarly rallied off support at 300. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is still declining and failure to reach the upper trend channel (on the price chart) would warn of an accelerating down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

October 6, 2011

Crude breaks support

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Brent crude broke support at $104/barrel and is testing the lower trend channel and long-term rising trendline. Respect would signal a rally to the upper channel border, while breakout below the rising trendline would warn of a sharp fall. 63-Day Momentum below zero suggests the down-trend is strengthening.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 115 – 105 ) = 95

September 28, 2011

Gold and crude suffer from strong dollar

Spot Gold is testing support at its initial target of $1600/ounce. The long tail is evidence of buying support, but failure would test $1500. The primary trend direction remains up and, despite gold experiencing a strong correction, is unlikely to change.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1750 – ( 1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

Brent crude is testing support at $104/barrel while Nymex WTI crude is at $80/barrel. There is no sign of the divergence between the two grades closing. Both have signaled a primary down-trend, though Brent has yet to confirm with a break of its rising trendline.

Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

September 22, 2011

Brent Nymex WTI Crude

Brent crude respected its declining trendline and is likely to re-test support at $104. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term, rising trendline at 95*.

Brent and Nymex WTI Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 115 – 105 ) = 95

September 14, 2011

Crude

The strengthening dollar caused crude prices to soften, with Brent crude headed for another test of support at $104/$105 per barrel. Failure of support would warn of a down-swing to $90, but breakout above the descending trendline is equally likely and would suggest a new primary advance.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers (2nd nearest future contract)

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

The spread between Brent and Nymex WTI crude narrowed to $20. An increase in supply from Libya or Nigeria would help to lower Brent prices further.

September 8, 2011

Crude rising

The Brent Crude rally since mid-August is now testing the descending trendline at $115/barrel. Breakout above this level would warn that the down-trend is ending. Recovery above $120 would signal a fresh primary advance. Rising crude prices are a negative sign for economic recovery, placing a further damper on consumer spending. Reversal below support at $105, however would signal a decline to $90*.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

September 1, 2011

Crude oil divergence continues

The spread between Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude remains at $24/barrel. Brent is rallying to test the declining trendline, but retreat to medium-term support at $105 is likely. Resolution of the conflict in Libya should take some of the supply pressure off European refineries, easing Brent prices.

Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Light Crude

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

We then have to wait and see what Chairman Ben pulls out of his hat at the September 21st FOMC meeting. Further quantitative easing would cause an upward spike in commodity prices, including crude.

August 24, 2011

Brent Crude ignores good news

Brent crude is stubbornly holding above support at $104/$105 per barrel despite the promise of an early resolution to the conflict in Libya. Even WTI Light crude [lime] recovered slightly after improved manufacturing orders in the US. But the primary trend is down and failure of support at $104 would offer a target of $90 per barrel.

Brent Crude and WTI Light Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90