breakout Archives - the patient investor

February 22, 2012

Gold tests $1800/ounce

Spot gold is testing resistance at $1800/ounce on the weekly chart after completing a small flag to signal continuation of the up-trend. Breakout would signal a primary advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The US Dollar Index remains weak as inflation expectations rise. Failure of medium-term support at 78.50 would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 80.00 would indicate trend strength. Target for a breakout above 81.50 would be 85.00*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

October 11, 2011

Has The Stock Market “Thrusted” Off A Bottom? | The Big Picture

We decided to take a further look at the highlighted statement above to see if we have hit a ‘significant bottom’ in the stock market after 3 consecutive daily rallies of 1.75% or more last week.

……A lot of people have been talking about this pattern. The implication is this represents a thrust off a low and the start of a significant move higher. History shows this has only been the case when this pattern results in a breakout of the previous range (see 1984). When this thrust results in a move back into a defined range (see 2002), it has little meaning. When the market only barely broke out (see 1974), the market churned sideways for months before moving higher.

Has the market’s trend changed? For now, the answer appears to be “no.” Until a breakout is established, we would not get that excited about the three consecutive daily rallies of 1.75% or more.

Source:
Bianco Research, LLC.
October 10, 2011

via Has The Stock Market “Thrusted” Off A Bottom? | The Big Picture.

August 25, 2011

Rand weakens

A three-year chart shows strong support for the US dollar at R6.50. Earlier breach of the descending trendline and rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum both warn that the Rand is likely to weaken. Now we have a break above resistance at R7.00 testing the 2011 high of R7.35. Breakout would signal an advance to R8.00*.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 7.30 + ( 7.30 – 6.50 ) = 8.10