These three commodities [thermal coal, coking coal and iron ore] make up half of Australia’s terms of trade. The first few months of next year are not going to be kind to the TOT. Not kind at all.
via Bulk trouble – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
Thermal coal:
Coking coal:
Iron ore:
Yields on the 10-year Commonwealth bond hit a record intraday low of 3.78 percentage points yesterday…….CPI inflation for the September quarter was still running at 3.5%. That means investors are close to giving the Australian government money for free.
On top of that….. Investors seem happy to park their money with the Australian government despite the large risk that the dollar will take a serious tumble (though of course they are themselves mitigating that risk somewhat through their own purchases). If investors are separately hedging, which, frankly, they’re mad if they’re not, that will add further cost to the transaction, enough surely, to push the return negative.
via Australia: The safe haven – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
The CRB Commodities Index is trending downwards in a broad trend channel after a failed rally to test resistance at 350. Expect a test of the long-term rising trendline at 300. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero confirms a primary down-trend.
The Australian Dollar broke support at $1.02, signaling a primary down-trend, before testing medium-term support at parity. Failure of support — and breach of the rising trendline — would confirm the down-trend and offer a target of $0.94*.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94
The Aussie Dollar continues to consolidate between $1.03 and $1.06 against the greenback. Failure of support at $1.03 would test parity, while breakout above $1.06 would target resistance at $1.10. In the long term, declining commodity prices are likely to drag the Aussie lower — unless the Fed starts printing money again.
* Target calculation: 1.03 – ( 1.06 – 1.03 ) = 1.00
The Aussie Dollar is testing the upper border of the declining trend channel against its Kiwi counterpart. Reversal below short-term support at $1.255 would indicate respect of the upper channel and a down-swing to around $1.20*. Breakout above $1.28 is unlikely but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.
* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20
