The CRB Commodities Index gapped down to its lower trend channel in response to turmoil in Europe and the resulting stronger dollar.
The Aussie followed its Canadian counterpart below parity, confirming a primary down-trend with an initial target of $0.94*.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94
Canada’s Loonie broke parity against the greenback, confirming a primary down-trend and offering an initial target of $0.94*.
* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94
The Canadian and Aussie Dollars have tracked each other closely over the last year and it seems inevitable that the Aussie will follow the Loonie below parity.
The CRB Commodities Index is trending downwards in a broad trend channel after a failed rally to test resistance at 350. Expect a test of the long-term rising trendline at 300. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero confirms a primary down-trend.
The Australian Dollar broke support at $1.02, signaling a primary down-trend, before testing medium-term support at parity. Failure of support — and breach of the rising trendline — would confirm the down-trend and offer a target of $0.94*.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94
The Australian Dollar is testing the lower border of its long-term (Raff Regression) trend channel against the greenback on a weekly chart. Expect strong support at parity. Recovery above $1.075 would suggest a rally to test the upper channel around $1.20*, while failure would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.10 + ( 1.10 – 1.00 ) = 1.20
Flight to safety weakened the Australian Dollar which broke support at $1.04 against the greenback. Expect another test of parity. 63-Day Momentum crossing below zero warns that the primary up-trend may be reversing. Breach of support would confirm.
* Target calculation: 1.05 – ( 1.10 – 1.05 ) = 1.00
The Aussie Dollar is also testing support at $1.25 against its Kiwi partner. The primary trend is down and follow-through below $1.245 would indicate a down-swing to the lower trend channel over the next few months.
* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20
