Tag: ASX 200

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China rebound boosts ASX

China’s Shanghai Composite Index found strong support at 1990/2000. Breakout above 2080 would suggest a rally to 2150. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breach of 1990 is now unlikely, but would warn of a decline to 1850.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

The ASX 200 responded with buying support, signaled by two long tails, at 5290. Recovery above 5380 would suggest another advance (confirmed by breakout above 5460), while failure of 5290 would signal continuation of the correction towards primary support at 5050.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX below 13 indicates low market risk.

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Aussie Dollar resilient despite ASX correction

China is dragging the ASX lower despite a resilient US market. Breach of medium-term support at 5340 warns of a correction. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure and reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. The primary trend remains upward, however, and only breach of support at 5050 would signal a reversal.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX retreated to 13, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

The Aussie Dollar is also proving resilient, testing resistance at $0.91 and the descending trendline despite weakness on the ASX. Upward breakout would suggest the down-trend is weakening. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would go further, signaling a primary up-trend, though only breakout above $0.97 would confirm. Reversal below medium-term support at $0.89 remains more likely, however, and would warn of another decline. Breach of primary support at $0.87 would offer a target of $0.83*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.91 – 0.87 ) = 0.83

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ASX and Aussie Dollar retreat

The Aussie Dollar retreated from resistance at $0.91 and is likely to test medium-term support at $0.89. Breach of support would test the primary level at $0.87, while respect would favor another attempt at $0.91. The primary trend is down and failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.83*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.91 – 0.87 ) = 0.83

The ASX 200 followed the Aussie lower, retreating below 5450 on the daily chart. Retreat of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would complete a bearish divergence, warning of a correction. Failure of support at 5350 would confirm. The primary trend remains upward and only breach of support at 5050 would signal a reversal.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

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ASX 200 likely to follow

The ASX 200 indicates short-term buying pressure with a hammer candlestick followed by a harami formation. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also suggests medium-term buying pressure; completion of a large trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 5450 is likely, after the strong showing in US markets, and would signal an advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5350 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

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ASX 200 stalls as Aussie Dollar retreats

The Aussie Dollar retreated from resistance at $0.91. Breakout below primary support at $0.885 against the greenback would warn of a primary decline, with a long-term target of $0.81*. Follow-through below $0.865 would confirm. Recent Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero also indicate a primary down-trend. Respect of primary support and recovery above $0.91 is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.89 – ( 0.97 – 0.89 ) = 0.81

The ASX 200 is consolidating below resistance at 5450, waiting for a lead from US markets. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests long-term selling pressure, but completion of a large trough above zero (TMF recovery above 30%) would change this. Breakout above 5450 would signal an advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5400, however, would warn of another correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX below 15 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

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ASX 200 hits resistance

After a healthy start to the day, the ASX ran into poor Flash Manufacturing PMI out of China. The Aussie Dollar fell through 90 cents, suggesting another test of 87 (US cents).

Aussie Dollar

The ASX 200 faces strong resistance at 5400 to 5450. Rising 21-day Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure and breakout above 5450 would confirm a primary advance. But reversal below 5400 would warn of another correction; follow-through below 5350 would confirm.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

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ASX 200 hammer

The ASX 200 recovered above 5200 Monday after a last week’s hammer candlestick flagged support. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest another advance. Breakout above 5400 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Failure to break the descending trendline would warn of another decline, however, and breach of 5000 would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX retreated to below 15, reflecting low market risk.

ASX 200

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ASX 200 at risk

The ASX 200 is at far greater risk of reverting to a primary down-trend. Retreat of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, after a bearish divergence, warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 5050 would strengthen the signal, while breach of 5000 would confirm. Respect of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would continue the up-trend.

ASX 200

Breach of support at 5000 would suggest a fall to the long-term trendline, around 4600. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero again suggests a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but below 20 still reflects low market risk.

ASX 200

Also, none of our macro-economic/volatility indicators indicate elevated risk, but you can’t argue with the tape.

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Aussie dive hurts ASX

The Australian Dollar is declining after breaking primary support at $0.885, offering a long-term target of 80 cents*. Exporters and import replacement industries on the ASX will benefit from the weaker Aussie Dollar in the long-term, but the short-term impact is negative, with overseas investors retreating from the market.

Australian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.885 – ( 0.97 – 0.885 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is heading for a test of support at 5200. Breach is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Recovery above 5400 is unlikely in the short-term, but would signal a primary advance, with a long-term target of 5800*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

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ASX 200 hanging man

The ASX 200 is testing short-term resistance at 5300. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure, but the latest hanging man candlestick is bearish. Follow-through above 5320 would indicate an advance to 5400*, while reversal below 5200 would test primary support at 5050.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5300 + ( 5300 – 5200 ) = 5400

The ASX 200 VIX below 20 continues to reflect low market risk.

ASX 200 VIX

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