The ASX 200 is holding above its new support level at 5550/5560. Breakout above 5600 would confirm a medium-term target of 5700*.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700
BHP fuels ASX 200 surge
A surge in production from miner BHP Billiton — shipping 223 million tonnes in FY 2014 against earlier projections of 207 million tonnes — helped the ASX 200 break through resistance at 5550/5560 today. Expect retracement to test support at 5550 and the rising trendline. Respect would confirm a medium-term target of 5700*.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700
ASX 200 VIX below 10 continues to indicate a bull market.
The Australian Dollar responded to the influx of international buyers, breaking resistance at $0.94. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm a rally to $0.97. RBA intervention has so far proved ineffectual, but reversal below $0.94 would warn of a test of $0.92.
ASX 200 suggests breakout
The ASX 200 again tested resistance at 5550/5560 this morning, as shown on the hourly chart below. The index retreated, but not far, and another attempt is likely provided international markets behave overnight. Breakout above 5560 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5520 is unlikely, but a fall below 5500 would warn of a test of 5375.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
S&P 500 pregnant pause
- S&P 500 advance to 2000 likely.
- VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
- ASX 200 finds support.
A Harami candlestick formation on the S&P 500 suggests continuation of the up-trend. Harami means ‘pregnant’ in Japanese. Expect a test of the psychological barrier at 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Short retracement or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 15 on news of the Israeli incursion into Gaza and the downing of Malaysian airlines flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine, but soon retreated to 12 and remains indicative of a bull market.
The ASX 200 retreated below support at 5525/5530 on the hourly chart, but long tails at 5500 indicate buying pressure and another attempt at 5550 is likely. An open above 5530 would confirm. Breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would signal another test of 5350.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
S&P 500 pregnant pause
- S&P 500 advance to 2000 likely.
- VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
- ASX 200 finds support.
A Harami candlestick formation on the S&P 500 suggests continuation of the up-trend. Harami means ‘pregnant’ in Japanese. Expect a test of the psychological barrier at 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Short retracement or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 15 on news of the Israeli incursion into Gaza and the downing of Malaysian airlines flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine, but soon retreated to 12 and remains indicative of a bull market.
The ASX 200 retreated below support at 5525/5530 on the hourly chart, but long tails at 5500 indicate buying pressure and another attempt at 5550 is likely. An open above 5530 would confirm. Breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would signal another test of 5350.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
ASX encounters resistance
The ASX 200 gapped up at today’s open, but encountered strong selling at recent highs of 5550 — evidenced by large volume on the hourly chart. The index retreated, but respect of support at 5525/5530 and the rising trendline indicates buyers remain in control. Breakout above 5550 would signal another primary advance, with a long-term target of 5950*.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5050 ) = 5950
ASX 200 faces resistance
The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5540/5560. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero continues to indicate hesitancy. Breakout above 5560 is unlikely, but would offer a target of 5700*. Reversal below 5450 would mean another test of support at 5370.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700
ASX 200 VIX below 10, however, continues to indicate a bull market.
Market bullish despite Europe bank worries
- S&P 500 advance to 2000 likely.
- Europe warns of correction.
- China further consolidation expected.
- ASX 200 hesitant.
US market sentiment remains bullish, while Europe hesitates on Portuguese banking worries. As Shane Oliver observed: “Could there be a correction? Yes. Is it start of new bear mkt? Unlikely. Bull mkts end with euphoria, not lots of caution like there is now…”
The S&P 500 found support between 1950 and 1960, as evidenced by long tails on the last two candles, and is likely to advance to the psychological barrier of 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Expect retracement at the 2000 level, but short duration or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains at low levels indicative of a bull market.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke support at 3200/3230, warning of a correction to the primary trendline at 3000. Solvency doubts over struggling Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo have roiled European markets. Descent of 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 3230 is unlikely at present.
* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 3000 ) = 3300
China’s Shanghai Composite Index displays strong medium-term buying pressure, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero. Follow-through above 2060 would indicate another test of 2090. Breach of primary support is unlikely at present, but would signal a decline to 1850*. Further ranging between 2000 and 2150 is expected — in line with a managed “soft landing”.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
The ASX 200 found support at 5450 and appears headed for another test of resistance at 5550. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero, however, continues to indicate hesitancy. Reversal below 5450 would signal another test of 5350, while breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
Market bullish despite Europe bank worries
- S&P 500 advance to 2000 likely.
- Europe warns of correction.
- China further consolidation expected.
- ASX 200 hesitant.
US market sentiment remains bullish, while Europe hesitates on Portuguese banking worries. As Shane Oliver observed: “Could there be a correction? Yes. Is it start of new bear mkt? Unlikely. Bull mkts end with euphoria, not lots of caution like there is now…”
The S&P 500 found support between 1950 and 1960, as evidenced by long tails on the last two candles, and is likely to advance to the psychological barrier of 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Expect retracement at the 2000 level, but short duration or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains at low levels indicative of a bull market.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke support at 3200/3230, warning of a correction to the primary trendline at 3000. Solvency doubts over struggling Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo have roiled European markets. Descent of 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 3230 is unlikely at present.
* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 3000 ) = 3300
China’s Shanghai Composite Index displays strong medium-term buying pressure, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero. Follow-through above 2060 would indicate another test of 2090. Breach of primary support is unlikely at present, but would signal a decline to 1850*. Further ranging between 2000 and 2150 is expected — in line with a managed “soft landing”.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
The ASX 200 found support at 5450 and appears headed for another test of resistance at 5550. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero, however, continues to indicate hesitancy. Reversal below 5450 would signal another test of 5350, while breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
ASX 200: Tall blue candles and short red ones
The ASX 200 is once again testing resistance at 5540/5560. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy, but tall blue candles followed by short red candles suggests continuation of the rally. Breakout above 5560 would offer a target of 5700*. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely but would mean all bets are off and another test of support at 5370 is on the cards.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700
ASX 200 VIX close to 10 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
