The ASX 200 recovered above 5200 Monday after a last week’s hammer candlestick flagged support. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest another advance. Breakout above 5400 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Failure to break the descending trendline would warn of another decline, however, and breach of 5000 would signal a primary down-trend.
The ASX 200 VIX retreated to below 15, reflecting low market risk.
The ASX 200 is at far greater risk of reverting to a primary down-trend. Retreat of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, after a bearish divergence, warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 5050 would strengthen the signal, while breach of 5000 would confirm. Respect of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would continue the up-trend.
Breach of support at 5000 would suggest a fall to the long-term trendline, around 4600. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero again suggests a primary down-trend.
The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but below 20 still reflects low market risk.
Also, none of our macro-economic/volatility indicators indicate elevated risk, but you can’t argue with the tape.
With secondary weakness in both China and the US, the ASX 200 broke support at 5200, signaling another correction. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero suggests short-term selling pressure. Recovery above 5250 is unlikely, but would indicate a bear trap. Failure of primary support at 5050 would warn of a primary down-trend.
The monthly chart illustrates the importance of primary support at 5000. Breach would confirm the down-trend, suggesting a fall to the long-term trendline, around 4600.
* Target calculation: 5300 + ( 5300 – 5200 ) = 5400
The ASX 200 VIX rose sharply, but (below 20) continues to reflect low market risk.
The ASX 200 found short-term support at 5200. Recovery above 5400 would signal another advance, but failure is more likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5050 ) = 5850
The ASX 200 VIX below 20, however, continues to reflect low market risk.
The falling Aussie Dollar continues to reflect local market weakness. Breach of primary support at $0.89 against the greenback would indicate a primary decline, with a long-term target of $0.81*. The recent Twiggs Momentum peak below zero also suggests a primary down-trend. Respect of support, and recovery above the descending (orange) trendline, is unlikely but would indicate another rally.
* Target calculation: 0.89 – ( 0.97 – 0.89 ) = 0.81
The ASX 200 correction halted above medium-term support between 4900 and 5000, but there are no signs yet of a reversal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of support at 4900 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Respect of support (4900) and Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line are both unlikely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.
Low values on the ASX 200 VIX continue to reflect low market risk.
Despite bullish signs in Japan, China and the US, the ASX 200 is undergoing a correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of medium-term support between 4900 and 5000 would indicate a test of primary support at 4650. Respect of medium-term support seems as likely, however, and would signal a healthy primary up-trend — as would a Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.
The ASX 200 VIX index recovered above 15, but continues to indicate low market risk.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is likely to retrace to test its new support level at 15000. Respect would negate the bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow and confirm the long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline, however, would warn of a correction to 12500/13000.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500
Narrow consolidation at China’s Shanghai Composite upper trend channel suggests continuation of the rally. Follow-through above 2210 would signal a test of 2270. Reversal below 2180 is less likely, but would indicate a down-swing to the lower channel. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2270 would signal a primary up-trend.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is likely to retrace to test the new support level at 23500. Respect would confirm an advance to 25500*, signaling a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500.
* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500
India’s Sensex is again rallying after testing support at 20200. Breakout above its 2007/2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the rising trendline and primary support at 18000.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is struggling with resistance at 3250/3300. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero continues to warn of selling pressure. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely at present, but would signal a primary advance to 3600*. Reversal below 3120 would warn of another correction to primary support at 3000.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600
The ASX 200 continues to encounter selling pressure, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Reversal below the rising trendline and short-term support at 5290 would signal a correction. Breakout above 5400 is less likely, but would suggest an advance to 5600*. Follow-through above 5450 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600
Readings on the ASX 200 VIX index are more bullish, suggesting relatively low market risk.
