The Big Picture Archives - Page 19 of 34

September 4, 2014

Iran Didn’t Create ISIS. We Did | The Diplomat

From Ben Reynolds:

….No one is innocent in the Iraqi and Syrian civil wars, but Iran is not primarily responsible for the current state of affairs. The U.S. and its allies destabilized Iraq and Syria in turn, creating safe havens for extremists that previously did not exist. U.S. allies provided the material support that allowed ISIS and groups like it to become threats to the entire region, despite lacking any substantial popular base in Syria and Iraq. It is not unreasonable for Iran and Hezbollah to fight against these groups, which murder and enslave Shia and other religious minorities. Their actions conceivably fall under one of the West’s favorite principles of international law: the duty to protect.

August 30, 2014

Luc Vancraen: Can the EU still prevent an open war between Ukraine and Russia?

Interesting proposal from Luc Vancraen, an entrepreneur in Kyiv who holds a masters degree from Boston University:

If there is no Novorussia today it is because of the ferocious fighting of the Ukrainian armed forces. If the EU wants the Ukrainians to stop fighting after Donbas is liberated it will have to come up with a plan that convinces even the volunteer battalions that it is just a matter of time before Crimea returns to Ukraine.

The only way I can see this happen is through a Crimean Occupation Tax on all energy imported from Russia into the EU and all other countries that want to participate. President Putin will not like this tax at all but strangely enough it might be enough for him to belief that this could stop the Ukrainian army. It buys him time and he can speculate on convincing the EU to drop it later through good behaviour even though this won’t be easy with a name like this.

The tax will be paid on all Russian gas, oil and coal sold in the EU. Who pays this tax? Initially it will be EU citizens through their energy bills. This allows Putin through the Russian propaganda to trivialise these sanctions and to laugh with the stupidity of the EU that sanctions itself. But don’t underestimate the creativity of the energy companies. They will find other suppliers and this helps the EU to reduce dependency from a supplier they can no longer trust. Russia will be faced very fast with a serious dilemma. Lowering energy prices to include the tax so that it remains competitive with suppliers that don’t need to pay this or totally losing the biggest customer on earth. Simulations show that after just two years it is Russia that is paying this tax to avoid totally losing the EU as a customer.

August 30, 2014

Garry Kasparov: It’s a War, Stupid! | TIME

From Gary Kasparov:

As always when it comes to stopping dictators, with every delay the price goes up. Western leaders have protested over the potential costs of action Ukraine at every turn only to be faced with the well-established historical fact that the real costs of inaction are always higher. Now the only options left are risky and difficult, and yet they must be tried. The best reason for acting to stop Putin today is brutally simple: It will only get harder tomorrow.

August 30, 2014

The Great Myth: World War I Was No Accident | The Diplomat

From Zachary Keck:

…As the wise philosopher Rob Farley once cautioned in these pages, “accidental wars rarely happen,” and instead are usually the result of deliberate state policy. And in this regard, WWI is no exception, at least according to Dale C. Copeland.

In his instant classic, Origins of Major Wars, Copeland developed a theory he called “dynamic differentials theory” to explain the causes of great power conflicts. To slightly oversimplify, dynamic differentials theory argues that declining states initiate wars when they are still clearly militarily superior but they believe they are in deep and irreversible decline relative to the rising state.

In such a situation, the leaders of the declining state come to see war as the only way to prevent the rising state from overtaking it as the most powerful nation in the system, thereby becoming a major security threat. Dynamic differentials theory posits that these leaders are most likely to initiate war when they believe they have maximized their relative power– that is, when they believe their relative military power is peaking and delaying war will only allow the rising nation to grow relatively stronger….

August 30, 2014

EU moves to ramp up Russia sanctions | Al Jazeera

From AlJazeera:

French President Francois Hollande stressed that a failure by Russia to reverse a flow of weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine would force the bloc to impose new economic measures.”Are we going to let the situation worsen, until it leads to war?” Hollande said at a news conference. “Because that’s the risk today. There is no time to waste.”

August 30, 2014

Tusk new president of European Council | NYTimes.com

From ANDREW HIGGINS and NEIL MacFARQUHARAUG:

Capping weeks of haggling among capitals and rival political groups, leaders on Saturday evening named Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland to replace Herman Van Rompuy as the president of the European Council, which sets the agenda for summits and helps represent the union at international gatherings. He is the first Eastern European selected for such a senior position, and his appointment, at a time of growing tensions with Russia, emphasized the growing clout of new members that, having shaken off decades of subservience to Moscow, generally favor a more robust approach to Russia than the union’s older members in the West.

August 28, 2014

Russians see war cost as their army invades

From Oleg Sukhov:

While previously Russia mostly sent fighters who had been formally discharged from the military or on official leave, earlier this week an invasion of eastern Ukraine by the regular Russian army began, making it much harder to hide the truth. …On Aug. 26 Ella Polyakova, head of the St. Petersburg Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, said that hospitals in Rostov-on-Don and nearby regions were filled with injured soldiers.

Valentina Melnikova, head of the Union of the Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers, said on Aug. 27 that about 15,000 Russian soldiers, including both mercenaries and the regular army, were currently fighting in eastern Ukraine. She lambasted the authorities for hiding the truth and effectively denying assistance to the killed soldiers’ families, comparing it to similar situations during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the first Chechen War.

On Aug. 27, the Stavropol Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers published a list of 400 killed and injured Russian troops.

These people are as much victims of an authoritarian Russian regime as the people of East Ukraine.

August 27, 2014

The Russians Are Coming | Michael Weiss

Chilling how accurate Michael Weiss’ March 28 analysis in Foreign Policy is proving to be.

RT @michaeldweiss: In late March I predicted Russia would invade east Ukraine. Here's why: http://t.co/FCDeLm2Va5

— Blogs of War (@BlogsofWar) August 27, 2014

August 25, 2014

Euro, Yen plunge against Dollar

The Euro broke support at $1.33, signaling a further decline against the Dollar with a target of $1.30*. Falling 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a strong down-trend. Recovery above $1.35 is most unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is slowing.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 – ( 1.40 – 1.35 ) = 1.30

The recent rally of the Euro against the Russian ruble has faltered. An economic contraction and rising tensions over Eastern Ukraine both contributed. The Euro remains in an up-trend and recovery above RUB 49 would suggest another attempt at the previous high of RUB 51. But failure of support at RUB 46 would signal a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to zero reflects current uncertainty.

Euro/Rouble

Vladimir Putin is attempting to exploit fault lines in the US/European alliance, targeting the powerful European farming and motor industry lobbies. Unauthorized incursions into Ukrainian territory by his white-painted “aid convoy” are another example, where the infringement is so apparently inoffensive that Angela Merkel will find it difficult to convince her European allies to escalate sanctions further. Failure to react will merely embolden Putin to conduct further minor infringements in defiance of the EU, confident in their response, until the Ukraine suffers “death by a thousand cuts”.

Putin

Only if the US/EU adopt an aggressive escalation, as suggested here on Defence & Freedom, are they likely to contain Russian aggression.

“…a defensive and reactionary game plan makes one predictable. The very existence of a crisis should be understood as a hint that someone used this predictability to predict the outcome of a produced crisis — and arrived at the conclusion that it’s a good idea. Aka failure of deterrence.”

Japan

As with the Euro, the Japanese Yen is also weakening against the Dollar. The Greenback broke resistance at ¥103.50, signaling a rally to test the 2013 high. Follow-through above ¥104 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Reversal below ¥103 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at ¥101.

USD/JPY

Australia

The Aussie Dollar, however, is holding its own — ranging between $0.92 and $0.95 against the US Dollar. The narrow band and 13-week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero both suggest continuation of the up-trend. Breakout above $0.95 would suggest a target of $0.97. Reversal below $0.92 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a decline to the band of support between $0.87 and $0.89.

Aussie Dollar

The ASX 200, retracing slightly from resistance at 5650, is also influenced by strong foreign investment flows. Indications are predominantly bullish, including 21-day Twiggs Money Flow forming troughs above zero. Follow-through above 5660 would signal another advance, with a medium-term target of 5850. Reversal above 5550 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

August 24, 2014

Aggressive defence | Defence and Freedom

From defence_and_freedom@gmx.de:

Imagine an unfolding crisis, and your government has confidence in its expectations for what’s going to happen next. Couldn’t a couple aggressive*, unexpected actions ruin the opposing sides’ plans, crush their timetable, make their political calculations obsolete, destroy their confidence in their ability to predict your government’s reactions and to predict the costs of the crisis?

Couldn’t such a disruption make a quite acceptable diplomatic settlement more likely? — I’m all for peace and free love and stuff**, but I distrust the notion that escalation is always a bad thing. An escalation to ruin some aggressor’s day may be the right thing to do. To have and obey a defensive and reactionary game plan makes one predictable. The very existence of a crisis should be understood as a hint that someone used this predictability to predict the outcome of a produced crisis – and arrived at the conclusion that it’s a good idea.
A.k.a. failure of deterrence.

* “aggressive”, NOT “aggression against a peaceful country
** Similarly, I don’t think “war as last resort” makes much sense.